Fw: Is it safe?

?
----- Original Message -----
From: john stamas
To: Paul Scarborough
Sent: Wednesday, January 03, 2001 9:17 PM
Subject: Is it safe?

Lower interest rates doesn't mean you can buy companies with broken and
unproven businessplans, Amazon.? It also doesn't mean u buy the Wintel
monopoly because the pc revolution has been over for a couple of years.? I'm
working on a liquid crystal display company called Applied Films because I
think screens are future, not laptops, not pc's or hardware companies in
general.? Lower rates will not save Xerox.? What lower rates does mean is
that if a company is hitting on all cylinders the market may give it a 40
price to earnings ratio instead of a 30.? It may get the short sellers off
our back on names like Nextlink, now called XO communications whose business
plan works but who needs lenders to open up their wallets again and this
time only to real companies, sorry Webvan, Priceline, Pets.com, and of
course Amazon.? If these lenders weren't so burned with this paper they
might still be lending to the internet infrastructure names like XO and
Teligent.? The trillion dollar question is will multiple appreciation
compensate enough for the earnings slowdown in the next quarter or two.? For
the autos I think not.? Remember my comments two months ago about Auto
layoffs around the corner.? Today GM announced Dec. sales down almost 20%.
??? This is a critical time in the market for investors.? If we can find
stocks who won't be affected by an earnings slowdown, McDonalds, then we
should start to get some multiple appreciation and therefore higher stock
prices.? If Oracle grows at 40% instead of 50% but the market starts paying
higher multiples for strong companies we could also see Oracle move higher.?
And lastly for telecom names that do have a sound strategy and management
team,access to capital should appear somewhere down this new horizon.
??? My suggestions are as follows: My largest new position is a research
fund by Goldman Sachs that closes to new investors at the end of Jan.?
Typically technology and financial stocks lead the market when the FED
begins easing like they did today.? This fund is 25% in tech and 25% in
financials with other names in the fund including Merck, Philip Morris,Tyco
and Enron.? The Goldman list was positive last year even with such heavy
tech exposure and a Nasdaq? market that was down almost 40%. I feel it's a
nice way to participate in a market that has been hit hard.? The remaining
positions may not be for everyone but here are some suggestions
?
??? Libery Media Group
??? McDonalds
??? Oracle
??? Philip Morris
??? Echostar???
??? XO Communications
??? Omnicom
??? JDS Uniphase
????
Aggressive Ideas:
??? BEA systems
??? Redback Networks
??? Efficient Networks
??? Applied Micro Circuits
??? Sibel Systems
??? Openwave Communications
??? Comverse Technology
??? Avanex
?
Tax bounce idea:
??? Northeast Optics