Japanese Preview

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echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca J.P. Chorek=
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Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 1.75% 0.15% 3.=
25% 4.0% 1.25-2.25% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] Japanese Forex Trading Pre=
view December 23, 7:00 PM: EUR/$..0.8967 $/JPY..129.52 GBP/$..1.4367 $/CHF=
..1.6507 Japanese Forex Trading Preview by Jes Black No Key Data Today T=
he dollar went into the Christmas holiday season with a bang, ending Friday=
's US session up nearly 1.5% to against the euro at 88.67 and climbing to a=
fresh 3-year high 129.66. Supporting the dollar was the third consecutive =
rise in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey to 88.8 in the=
final December reading from the preliminary 85.8. This contrasted with low=
er than expected data from the Eurozone and the Bank of Japan's seventh str=
aight month of lowering their assessment of the economy. Optimism for the U=
S economy showing signs of recovery was enough to render the downward revis=
ion of Q3 GDP to 1.3% a mute point. Confidence in a forthcoming rebound was=
also enough to offset a 0.7% fall in consumer spending and a 0.1% fall in =
personal income. EUR/USD fell to a low of 88.55 on Friday, undermined by a=
steep selloff in EUR/JPY to a low of 114.50 after failing to maintain gain=
s above 116. Dealers took profit from the euro's 6-week climb against the y=
en to a fresh 2-year high of 116.61 on Friday. Dealers also noted that the =
pair had been on a steady decline since hitting a 6-week high of 90.78 on M=
onday and its failed attempts at maintaining above 90-cents were an ominous=
sign. GBP/USD was also dragged lower by the fall in EUR/USD as well as lo=
sses in GBP/JPY. Cable hit a 10-day low of 1.4344 as sterling shed most of =
its 3.5-yen rise to a new 2-year high of 188.26. Nevertheless, the pound re=
ached a 5-week high of .6156 against the euro as broad based weakness in th=
e single currency weighed it down. Aside from euro weakness, sterling was a=
lso supported by remarks from Bank of England Governor George who said that=
there was a serious risk from a one size fits all monetary policy and that=
the persistent weakness of the euro was creating problems for the British =
economy. This highlighted the risk of the UK joining the euro given the ECB=
's reluctance to stimulate the economy despite the global downturn. Support=
is viewed at 1.4350, 1.430 and 1.4275. Upside capped at 1.4475, 1.4515 and=
1.4550. The next key resistance is seen at 1.460- the upper bound of the d=
ownward channel between the October 8 high of 1.4829 to the December 17 hig=
h of 1.4607, and then 1.4755- the upward limit of the downward channel betw=
een the January 12 high of 1.5101 and the October 12 high of 1.4829. USD/C=
HF skyrocketed by 2 centimes to a 1-week high of 1.6550 on dollar strength =
after the Swiss franc had reached a 4-day high of 1.6286. Safe-haven flows =
were seen boosting CHF as money flowed out of emerging markets following th=
e announcement Argentina's debt crisis. Fears of default inflamed fears abo=
ut Argentina's fragile economic situation, and prompted considerable purcha=
ses of the franc though that effect has since subsided. Resistance is seen =
at 1.6550, 1.6585 and 1.6650. Support stands at 1.6465, 1.640 and 1.6370. I=
n contrast, the Swiss franc made headway to a 3-week high of 1.4598 against=
the declining euro. Today's Asian trading session is likely to be marked =
by thin liquidity but dealers will remained focused on any comments coming =
out of Japan after last week's remarks showed little concern for a weaker y=
en. Japan's Ministry of Finance added fuel to the yen selling following int=
ernational bureau chief Mizoguchi's reiteration that that the recent sharp =
decline was merely a correction of its excessive strength this summer. Deal=
ers noted that the welcoming of a weaker yen could put JPY under further pr=
essure in thin holiday trade this week. However, the focus from here will b=
e how Japanese, US and Chinese officials react if USD/JPY passes 130 becaus=
e of the trade implications of such a weak yen. But so far, traders in New =
York said it was not yet clear if the market would find the drive to test t=
he psychologically critical 130 level this week after such a sharp run up i=
n USD/JPY last week. =09[IMAGE] Audio Mkt. Analysis USDJPY Breaks Above 12=
9 Articles & Ideas 2002: Euro Deja Vu? USD/JPY: The Return of Doll=
ar Rhetoric? Articles & Ideas Forex Glossary Economic Indicators =
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