Japanese Preview

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echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca J.P. Chorek=
Technical Research Ltd. Charts & News featuring Standard & Poor's =
Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 1.75% 0.15% 3.=
25% 4.0% 1.25-2.25% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] Japanese Forex Trading=
Preview January 24, 7:00 PM: EUR/$..0.8775 $/JPY..134.87 GBP/$..1.4248 $/C=
HF..1.6737 Japanese Forex Trading Preview by Darko Pavlovic At 6 PM Japa=
n overall CPI down 1.7% y/y down 0.3% m/m The yen fell to a new three yea=
r low of 134.90 vs. the dollar after Japan Dec. Nationwide Core CPI fell 0.=
9% from a year earlier, 27th consecutive month of decline. Nationwide core =
CPI fell 0.8% in 2001 compared with the previous year, falling for the 2nd =
straight year. Overnight the markets were discouraged by Japanese Finance M=
inister's comments overnight that his policy was not to intervene in forex =
markets, but to let them decide exchange rates. Traders interpreted his rem=
ark as a signal to unload the yen. Finance Minister Shiokawa said yesterday=
he does not think the yen's decline has been too rapid. Recall, that the y=
en has lost 2% in just five preceding days. Shiokawa also added that the go=
vernment plans to take action'' if the yen moves considerably. PM Koizumi=
plans to prepare a comprehensive package of tax reforms designed to combat=
deflationary pressure by spurring demand for real estate and housing. The =
Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy will focus on raising the gift tax ex=
emption on monetary gifts from parents to children to finance housing purch=
ases and plans to reduce or eliminate various real estate transaction taxes=
. A joint task force of government officials and the BoJ has agreed to ensu=
re an ample supply of funds on the market and create demand through structu=
ral reform, in order to bring deflation under control. The government forec=
ast that the economy which started shrinking 14 months ago, will probably c=
ontract 1% in the fiscal year ending March 31, and will likely have 0% this=
year. Resistance is eyed at 135.0 and 135.50. Support holds at 134.0, 133.=
60 and 133.0. Federal Reserve head Greenspan said that the forces restrai=
ning the US economy are diminishing and activity is beginning to firm. Gree=
nspan clarified that in his speech on January 11, he had tried to communica=
te that the economy was stabilizing while avoiding any talk about an econom=
ic snap-back, and thus he regretted not phrasing his speech differently. Al=
though Greenspan felt that the US is "just at this particular point turning=
" in the US business cycle, he projected that the US is close to zero GDP g=
rowth. On its part, the White House also indicated it saw increasing signs =
of strength in the economy but also clouds. Therefore, the White House esti=
mated "quite modest" GDP growth in Q1, followed by acceleration in growth l=
ater. The euro is trading around 87.74 after falling to from its 1-month l=
ow of 87.53, underpinned by European Central Bank Vice-President Noyer's de=
claration in favor of a strong euro and that the ECB believes the European =
economy will recover this year. Noyer explained further that the single cur=
rency has sufficient room to rise without hurting industry. As for inflatio=
n, Noyer reiterated that Eurozone CPI should drop "clearly below 2%" after =
Jan-Feb and stay there. Resistance is viewed at 88.15, 88.60 and 89.10-- th=
e 50% Fibonacci retracement of the move from 82.25 to 95.96. Support is see=
n at 87.50-- the 31.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from 82.25 to 95.9=
6, backed by 87.0 and 86.80. This week's remaining key US indicator is exi=
sting home sales. From the Eurozone, major data due for release consist of =
German PPI, Italian CPI, Italian retail sales and Spanish PPI. The release =
of consumer prices in Japan is expected to reflect the prolonged deflationa=
ry spiral that is adding to their economic woes. =09[IMAGE] Audio Mkt. =
Analysis Markets Rally as Greenspan Clarifies Outlook Articles & Ide=
as NAM & the Strong Dollar: Phase II Philly Fed-Supported Optimism =
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