Enron Mail

From:info@forexnews.com
To:sara.shackleton@enron.com
Subject:Japanese Preview
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Date:Wed, 30 Jan 2002 16:05:32 -0800 (PST)


[IMAGE] Forums Discuss these points in the Forums: Forexnews Forum T=
echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca J.P. Chorek=
Technical Research Ltd. Charts & News featuring Standard & Poor's =
Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 1.75% 0.15% 3.=
25% 4.0% 1.25-2.25% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] Japanese Forex Trading Pre=
view January 30, 7:00 PM: EUR/$..0.8611 $/JPY..132.87 GBP/$..1.4143 $/CHF.=
.1.7089 Japanese Forex Trading Preview by Darko Pavlovic No key data. T=
he dollar is trading around 132.80 yen, well above one week lows of 132.35 =
due to strength derived from the upbeat US GDP figure rather than weakness =
in the Japanese currency. The Japanese currency was supported just before t=
he FOMC decision on news that General Motors' Chief Economist Mustafa Mohat=
arem had requested the US Treasury tell Japan to stop intervening in curren=
cy markets, since the weaker yen is hurting the manufacturing industry and =
jobs. Overnight the yen had risen to a 1-week high of 132.35 against the do=
llar after a report in the Wall Street Journal stated that General Motors h=
ad complained to Treasury Secretary O'Neill about the weak yen because of i=
ts negative impact on the firm's bottom line. GM is hoping that President B=
ush will discuss the issue when he meets with Prime Minister Koizumi next m=
onth, because if the US Treasury does not signal clearly its opposition to =
Japan's deliberate efforts to weaken the yen, then GM executives fear that =
the the Japanese will continue their FX manipulations. MoF's Mizoguchi who =
affirmed Hayami's comment that a weaker currency will not solve Japan's pro=
blems also supported the yen. After he sacked Makiko Tanaka as his foreign =
minister PM Koizumi is trying to appoint Sadako Ogata to that position. The=
changeover came during busy Japan's diplomatic schedule. The foreign minis=
ters of Japan and Russia are due to meet on Saturday. Koizumi is hopeful Og=
ata will accept the position.The diffusion index of sales for smaller firms=
hit -25.9 in January, 2.2 pts better than in December, rising for the firs=
t time in six months. Analysts doubtful that improvements in index mean the=
deteriorating trend have come to a halt. The BoJ policy board member Nakah=
ara reiterated the need for the Central Bank to consider foreign bond buyin=
g as a way of injecting liquidity into the financial markets. Nakahara said=
the BOJ could possibly buy foreign bonds totaling Y200 billion a month.Ups=
ide capped at 133.70, 134.0 and 134.30. Support holds at 132.35, 132.0 and =
131.75. The dollar and US stocks rallied today on a better-than-anticipa=
ted positive GDP reading, drawing renewed encouragement as well from the Fe=
deral Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged in a highly expe=
cted move.US Q4 GDP rose 0.2% q/q from the previous 1.3%, startling market=
s which had been expecting a second straight quarterly drop to 1.0% that w=
ould have officially designated the US economy as being in a recession. The=
Federal Reserve decided today to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.75% b=
ut maintained its easing bias. The FOMC acknowledged the presence of signs =
that weakness in demand is abating and economic activity is beginning to fi=
rm, thereby leading to a more promising outlook for economic recovery. Tomo=
rrow's release of Chicago PMI is forecasted to rise to 45.5 in January from=
the previous 41.4, mirroring the improvement seen in the ISM (formerly NAP=
M) survey. The pickup in the manufacturing sector is attributable to increa=
sed spending on durables and other goods, and therefore, US Personal consum=
ption is expected to rise to 0.1% in December from the previous 0.7%. Per=
sonal income is also assumed to post a gain of 0.3% in December from the pr=
evious 0.1%, even though the Employment cost index is projected to hold st=
eady at 1.0% in Q4. EUR/USD fell around half-a-cent to a session low of 86=
.01 in response to the surprisingly positive US GDP data, pressured also by=
comments from the Bundesbank's Meister declaring that additional ECB rate =
cuts are pointless if the economy matches the rise in sentiment. He comment=
ed that the German economy is now passing its low point and therefore growt=
h will pickup in the latter half of the year. The euro was also hurt by the=
European Commission's recommendation that Germany and Portugal be warned a=
bout their rising budget deficits, which are nearing the official limit of =
3% of GDP. Overnight, the single currency was lifted by French business con=
fidence that overshot expectations to rise for the second time to 92 in Jan=
uary from the previous 90. Support is viewed at 85.55-- the 71.8% Fibonacci=
retracement of the move from 82.25 to 95.95, and 85.0. Resistance is seen =
at 86.70, 87.0 and 87.50. =09[IMAGE] Audio Mkt. Analysis Positive GDP, P=
ositive Fed Help Dollar Articles & Ideas Fed Moves On, Dollar Moves =
Up How Will the Dollar Fare Amid the Data Barrage? Articles & Ideas=
Forex Glossary Economic Indicators Forex Guides Link Library [I=
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