Japanese Preview

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echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca J.P. Chorek=
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Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 1.75% 0.15% 3.=
25% 4.0% 1.25-2.25% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] Japanese Forex Trading Pre=
view February 25, 7:00 PM: EUR/$..0.8693 $/JPY..133.83 GBP/$..1.4253 $/CHF=
..1.6972 Japanese Forex Trading Preview by Darko Pavlovic No key data. =
The yen retained the upper hand against the dollar around 133.80, boosted =
by Japan's trade surplus that came in above 118 billion yen in January, whe=
reas its surplus with the US rose for the first time in 10 months by 14.9% =
y/y to 524.8 bln yen. The latest data is to suggest that increasing US dema=
nd and weaker yen levels could benefit Japanese exports. In addition, Japan=
ese currency found strength as a result of repatriation flows before the fi=
scal year ends in March. Latest report show that anti deflationary package =
due on Wednesday will be a two part plan: the government will provide for m=
easures to stabilize stock market and ask the BoJ for more easing. The seco=
nd more important part of the plan will likely be revealed at the end of Ma=
rch and will outline tax changes and tackling the bad loans debt. Thursday =
meeting of the BoJ is not likely to produce any rate cut although that ques=
tion remains open. If the central bank does not ease monetary policy, the y=
en could weaken as traders express their disappointment by unloading the cu=
rrency. However, if the BoJ does inject liquidity by raising its purchases =
of government bonds, the yen is also likely to weaken. Markets will scrutin=
ize news conferences from Financial Minister Shiokawa, Economic Minister Ta=
kenaka and Financial Services Minister Yanagisawa. Japan's Fin Services Min=
ister Yanagisawa was not considering new steps on bad loans in anti-deflati=
on package. Yanagisawa explained that he had not received report on Bank re=
port steps for Daiei According to a telephone survey released Monday by Tok=
yo's TV 12 the support rate for the cabinet of PM Koizumi fell to 48.4%, th=
e first time it has fallen below 50% since it took office last April. The a=
pproval rating now stands below the 55.6% the cabinet received in the previ=
ous survey conducted in late January, immediately after Koizumi fired Forei=
gn Minister Tanaka. Support holds at 133.20, 133.0 and 132.50. Upside cappe=
d at 134.0, 134.40 and 134.90. EUR/USD is trading around just below 87 ce=
nts weighed by an unofficially released German jobless count for February s=
howing a 30,000 rise to 4.32 mln, along with the news that Germany's cartel=
office blocked Deutsche Telekom's planned sale of its cable assets to US m=
edia group Liberty Media in a deal worth $4.81 billion. Investors are undou=
btedly concerned about funneling their assets into a highly regulated Europ=
ean region. In mid-morning, the euro's slide was temporarily reversed as ma=
rkets reacted to a fall in Germany preliminary CPI to 0.3% m/m from 0.9% or=
to 1.7% y/y from the previous 2.1%. German preliminary harmonised CPI also=
dipped to 0.3% m/m from the previous 1.0%, or to 1.9% y/y from the previou=
s 2.3%. The Statistics office cited drops in heating oil and fuel prices as=
the primary reasons behind February's fall in inflation, which sparked hop=
e that the European Central Bank would be able to lower interest rates.None=
theless, the single currency was unable to find comfort in European Central=
Bank president Duisenberg's optimism that the world economy would rebound =
modestly, and that the Eurozone would grow close to its long-term trend bet=
ween 2-2.5% by the end of the year. Markets now await tomorrow's release of=
the German Ifo business sentiment survey that is forecasted to rise to 87.=
3 in February from the previous 86.3, reflecting the improvement seen in th=
e ZEW sentiment survey. Support is seen at 86.80, 86.45/50 and 86.10. Resis=
tance is viewed at 87.85, 88.10 and the 200-day moving average at 88.50. T=
omorrow morning's release of the US Conference Board consumer confidence in=
dex is forecasted to slip to 96.8 in February from the previous 97.3, mirro=
ring the decline in the University of Michigan survey. However, some analys=
ts anticipate the index will edge up slightly because the U. Michigan surve=
y places more weight on stock prices, which have fallen recently on account=
ing concerns. This week's other key US indicators include durable goods, ne=
w home sales, jobless claims, GDP, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, perso=
nal income and consumption, University of Michigan confidence survey, ISM (=
formerly NAPM) PMI. In the midst of all the economic releases, markets will=
be carefully listening to Fed Chairman Greenspan's semi-annual monetary po=
licy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday f=
or any hint that the central bank may begin to raise interest rates sometim=
e this year. Major data due for release from the Eurozone comprise the Ge=
rman Ifo business climate indicator, French CPI, Italian foreign trade, Eur=
oarea M3, German GDP, French INSEE industry survey, French PPI, Italian ret=
ail sales, Belgian CPI, Euroarea HICP, German PPI, French unemployment, Ita=
ly's ISAE industrial confidence survey, Italian PPI, Euroarea manufacturing=
PMI, Euroarea retail sales, German manufacturing PMI, French manufacturing=
PMI, France's INSEE household survey, Italian manufacturing PMI, Italian C=
PI, Italian GDP, and Spanish unemployment. Highlights from the UK are GDP, =
Gfk consumer confidence, nationwide house price index and the manufacturing=
Puchasing Managers survey. Major data releases from Japan are commercial s=
ales, industrial production, Shoko Chukin small firm survey, housing starts=
, consumer prices, household survey of expenditures and the labor force sur=
vey. =09[IMAGE] Audio Mkt. Analysis Rally in USD, Stocks Weigh on Europe=
an FX Articles & Ideas Will Greenspan & Data Overcome Enronitis? O=
ff Goes the Franc, On Comes Jospin Articles & Ideas Forex Glossary =
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