Enron Mail

From:info@forexnews.com
To:sara.shackleton@enron.com
Subject:Japanese Preview
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Date:Thu, 28 Feb 2002 16:10:35 -0800 (PST)


[IMAGE] Forums Discuss these points in the Forums: Forexnews Forum T=
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Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 1.75% 0.15% 3.=
25% 4.0% 1.25-2.25% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] Japanese Forex Trading Pre=
view February 28, 7:00 PM: EUR/$..0.8684 $/JPY..133.45 GBP/$..1.4160 $/CHF=
..1.6984 Japanese Forex Trading Preview by Darko Pavlovic At 12:00:00 AM =
Japan Feb Vehicle Sales (exp n/f, prev n/a) The dollar fell to a one week =
low vs. the yen around 133.20 after Japan's January unemployment unexpected=
ly fell to 5.3%, for the fist time this year. Although positive data give s=
ome sign for optimism, the economic outlook still look very depressed. Also=
, nationwide core CPI fell 0.8% in January from a year earlier, 28th consec=
utive month of decline, showing that deflation deepens. Tokyo's core consum=
er prices fell 0.9% from a year ago, worse than economic forecast calling f=
or a fall of 0.1% in January. January Japanese wage earners rose 0.2%, bett=
er than markets forecasts which estimated a fall of1.9%. Wage earner spendi=
ng is an important gauge of personal consumption, which accounts for roughl=
y 55% of Japan's GDP. Overnight, the yen was supported by the Bank of Japan=
's decision to increase its purchases of government bonds to 1 trillion yen=
per month from the current 800 billion yen. The central bank's action will=
help to improve the availability of credit ahead of the fiscal year end in=
March, although it may weaken the yen in the long run because of the rise =
in liquidity. Nevertheless, the Japanese currency is likely to depreciate i=
n light of Japan's economic quandary and the government's half-hearted atte=
mpt to resolve the floundering economy, evidenced in the anti-deflation pac=
kage released this week that markets for the most part deem ineffectual. Ha=
yami had clearly indicated his desire that the government would inject fund=
s into the ailing banking sector, but it remains to be seen whether the gov=
ernment will follow up its rhetoric with concrete acts or if their words wi=
ll be nothing more than empty promises. Support holds at 133.20 and 133.0. =
Resistance is eyed at 134.0, 134.40 and 134.80. US preliminary Q4 GDP ove=
rshot forecasts as it surged to 1.4% q/q from the previous 0.2%, posting it=
s largest gain since Q4 '00. Meanwhile, US Q4 Final Sales climbed to 3.6% f=
rom the previous 2.5%. Among the reasons for the better-than-expected growt=
h figures were significant gains in private and public spending. The greenb=
ack also cheered the release of the Chicago PMI that broke above the key 50=
-level into expansionary territory for the first time in 18 months to 53.1 =
in February from the previous month's 45.1. EUR/USD is trading around 86.=
80 despite being weighed in European trading by the rise in Eurozone HICP t=
o 2.7% y/y in January from the previous 2.5%. The figures prompted economis=
ts to expect the European Central Bank will not ease monetary policy when i=
t meets next week, especially after yesterday's data showed that Eurozone M=
3 climbed to 8%. The single currency also was lifted by the news that Euroz=
one consumer prices are estimated to have fallen to 2.5% y/y in February co=
mpared with the previous 2.7%. German Chancellor Schroeder urged that Germa=
n wage deals must be economically sensible, noting that a long standoff ove=
r wages or strikes would be "more than problematic" for recovery. Upside ca=
pped at 87.0, 87.40 and 87.80. Support is seen at 86.0, 85.50 and 85.0. F=
X traders now await tomorrow's releases of manufacturing and consumer senti=
ment data for confirmation of the beginning of a turnaround in the US econo=
my. Economists project that the ISM (formerly NAPM) purchasing managers sur=
vey for manufacturing will break above the key 50-level for the first time =
since July 2000 to 50.9 in February from the previous 49.9, confirming toda=
y's dramatic improvement in the Chicago PMI. As well, markets will assess t=
he final February reading of the University of Michigan Sentiment survey th=
at is expected to edge up to 91.2 in February from the preliminary estimate=
of 90.9, but fall compared with the previous month's 93.0. =09[IMAGE] A=
udio Mkt. Analysis USD Tempered by Greenspan's Cautiousness Articles =
& Ideas Koizumi Fails To Deliver Goodbye Hope, Sayonara Yen Artic=
les & Ideas Forex Glossary Economic Indicators Forex Guides Link Libr=
ary [IMAGE] =09
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