Enron Mail

From:info@forexnews.com
To:sara.shackleton@enron.com
Subject:Japanese Preview
Cc:
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Date:Tue, 20 Nov 2001 16:11:17 -0800 (PST)


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Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 2.0% 0.15% 3.2=
5% 4.0% 1.75-2.75% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] Japanese Forex Trading Prev=
iew November 20, 7:00 PM: EUR/$..0.8832 $/JPY..122.62 GBP/$..1.4197 $/CHF.=
.1.6483 Japanese Forex Trading Preview by Darko Pavlovic At 6:50:00 AM Ja=
pan Sept Index of Tertiary sector activity (exp -0.5, prev -0.1) The euro =
rose to a session high of $0.8842 vs. the dollar, as the dealers sold the g=
reenback on profit-taking ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Th=
e single currency was boosted overnight as Chinese officials confirmed it w=
ould increase its allocation of euros in its foreign currency reserves. Vic=
e Governor of the People's Bank of China Guo Shuqing said China had purchas=
ed euros in the last two months and would continue its buying. Dealers spec=
ulated that China would shift possible 10% of its reserves into the euro, i=
n a move that would translate to around 20 billion euros. Markets await tom=
orrow's release of the German Ifo Business climate index that estimates Ger=
man growth, which accounts for about one-third of the total Eurozone. Econo=
mists forecast the Ifo will remain unchanged at 85 in November after plungi=
ng to that level in October from 89.5. Disappointing results will most like=
ly spark renewed selling in the euro. Traders are also on edge ahead of Thu=
rsday's Euroarea GDP figures for Q3, which are seen to edge up to 0.2% from=
the previous quarter's 0.1%, as Italy posted a slight increase in GDP grow=
th. However, France and Germany are both expected to show stagnant growth a=
t 0.3% and 0.0% in Q3. The EU Commission forecasted Eurozone GDP at 1.6% in=
2001 and at 1.3% in 2002. French Finance Minister Fabius was more optimist=
ic in his outlook, anticipating French growth around 2% this year. Support =
is viewed at the 88.0-cent figure, backed by 87.80 and 87.40. Resistance is=
seen at 88.55, 88.75 and 89.10. The yen recovered to 122.54 vs. the dolla=
r, as the greenback slipped from three-month highs around 123.52 yen. Japan=
July- September economic activity fell 1.7% from the previous quarter and =
Japan July- September tertiary sector index fell 1% on quarter. In Septembe=
r the all industries index down 0.8% from the previous month, and tertiary =
sector index fell 0.9%. The deterioration in Japanese spending has negative=
ly impacted manufacturing production, corporate profit, capital spending, e=
mployment and income, and thus leads many economists to expect the July-Sep=
tember GDP will confirm the Japanese economy is in a recession. PM Koizumi =
wants to reform public corporations for highway construction. He showed det=
ermination in integrating and privatizing four highway construction entitie=
s and in eliminating the Housing Loan Corp. His proposal met a fierce oppos=
ition in some LDP lawmakers as construction of highways has always been a g=
ood investment for attracting more votes, but some lawmakers appear to seek=
a compromise behind the scene due to PM popularity. The Council on Economi=
c and Fiscal Policy decided Tuesday that the government and the Bank of Jap=
an would meet often to generate a synchronized anti-deflationary policy fra=
me. By holding habitual talks, the panel aspires to produce an atmosphere t=
hat facilitates the government and the BOJ to direct in executing anti-defl=
ationary policy measures. The Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported Tuesday that, a=
government deregulation panel would propose in a draft report due in Decem=
ber further deregulation of the job placement. A second supplementary budge=
t for fiscal 2001 would focus on urban renewal. The government plans to dec=
ide the draw of the package on Nov. 30. A major obstacle for the government=
is how to raise the 2-3 trillion yen without exceeding the government's pr=
omise to keep new government bond issuance under 30 trillion yen. Japan's C=
enter for Economic Research forecasted real July-September GDP to have con=
tracted 0.3%, or 1.4% annualized, from the previous quarter, for the second=
consecutive quarter of decline. The OECD forecasted Japanese economy will =
contract until 2003 and the recession could get deeper if the government do=
es not fully implement bad loans disposal. Senior officials of the ruling =
LDP asked Koizumi to take their views into consideration when deciding poli=
cies. Support is viewed at 122.50, 122.20 and 122.0. Upside capped at 123.2=
5, 123.50 and 123.85. This week's remaining major economic indicator from =
the US is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey that likely =
slipped to 83.0 in the final November reading from the preliminary 83.5 as =
layoff announcements offset any gains from improved sentiment arising from =
the military success in Afghanistan and hopes for an economic recovery. Fro=
m the Eurozone, economic highlights include German CPI, German Ifo business=
climate index, German GDP, German PPI, German import prices, French GDP, a=
nd Italy's ISAE business confidence survey. Japanese data due for release a=
re the trade balance and the index of tertiary sector activity. Economic re=
leases from the UK comprise the CBI Industrial Trends Survey and Q3 GDP. =
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