Japanese Preview

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Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 1.75% 0.15% 3.=
25% 4.0% 1.25-2.25% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] Japanese Forex Trading Pre=
view March 5, 7:00 PM: EUR/$..0.8711 $/JPY..132.25 GBP/$..1.4235 $/CHF..1.=
6948 Japanese Forex Trading Preview by Darko Pavlovic At 6:50:00 PM Japan=
Feb Business Confidence (exp n/f, prev n/a) The dollar looks steady aroun=
d 132.20 yen after falling to a six week low of 131.57 due to a strong repa=
triation flows ahead of March 31, the end of fiscal year. Nikkei fell yeste=
rday after gaining almost 6% on Monday and traders are waiting for to see t=
he stock performance today, as the rise could strengthen the yen. Nonethele=
ss it is likely that the USD/JPY will hover around 132.50 area. The dollar =
got support after ISM non-mfg index jumped to its highest levels since Nove=
mber 2000, boosting market expectations for the faster US recovery. Markets=
ask the govt. to incorporate tax reform into the anti-deflation package th=
at it is expected to strike as early as this month. Many consider the renew=
al of private demand through tax reform crucial, especially in reducing the=
corporate and inheritance tax rates. Panelists on the Forum for Policy Inn=
ovation would like to see the BoJ placing inflation target as it would forc=
e the central bank to rally all kinds of measures at its disposal in order =
to attain a preset level of price increases. Many government and ruling par=
ty officials have hard-pressed the BOJ to set inflation target.Japan's Oct-=
Dec cap spending fell 14.5% from previous year. Big firms Jan-Mar sentiment=
index is at -22.1 (compared with -28.3 for Oct-Dec period) Oct-Dec curre=
nt profits down 31.4% y/y. Japanese firms see 01/02 sales down 4.2% y/y Jap=
anese companies Oct-Dec sales down 3.8% y/y Japan firms see 01/02 current p=
rofits down 23.2% y/y The lower house will likely pass on Wednesday by a ma=
jority vote the 81.23 trillion yen budget for fiscal 2002, clearing the way=
for final Diet approval before the end of the current fiscal year. Japan's=
Center for Economic Research announced that GDP grew 1.9% from the precedi=
ng month in January, the first positive month-on-month GDP growth in three =
months due to an increase in consumer spending and exports. Resistance is e=
yed at 132.70, 133.0 and 133.50. Support stands at 132.0, 131.75 and 131.50=
. Today, President Bush announced the decision to levy a 30% tariff on ste=
el imports that portends the start of a trade war. The US explained that th=
e tariffs would be "temporary safeguard measures" and would remain in place=
for three years starting on March 20. Analysts noted that the government w=
as enacting these measures in order to avoid a change in the strong dollar =
policy and to help the ailing US steel industry in an election year. EUR/=
USD is trading around 87.10 after hitting a 1-week high of 87.20, supported=
by the second consecutive monthly rise in the Eurozone services PMI to 51.=
1 in February from the prior month's 51.0. In particular, the new business =
component broke above the key 5-level to 50.6 from 49.7 for the first gain =
since last summer, thereby spurring hopes that an economic recovery in the =
Eurozone is imminent. The single currency overlooked a 6,200 count rise in =
the German unadjusted total to 4.296 mln today, while Euroarea unemployment=
eased to 8.4% in January. Increasing signs of a turnaround in the Eurozone=
are thus fueling the prevailing belief that the European Central Bank will=
keep rates unchanged at 3.25% this Thursday at its monetary policy meeting=
and may even raise rates later in the year. Resistance is seen at 87.20, 8=
7.40 and 87.80. Support is viewed at 86.30, backed by the 86.0-cent figure,=
and 85.50. Major data due from the US this week consist of factory order=
s, the Fed Beige Book, jobless claims, productivity, consumer credit, and t=
he labor market report. Key Eurozone indicators include German manufacturin=
g orders, German unemployment, ECB rate decision, Italian GDP and Dutch CPI=
. The main data releases from the UK are the NTC/FRES report on jobs, housi=
ng starts and the Bank of England's rate decision. Highlights from Japan co=
mprise the MoF corporate survey, trade balance, indices of business conditi=
ons, GDP, money supply and wholesale prices. =09[IMAGE] Audio Mkt. Analy=
sis Trade Concerns Overwhelm USD, Despite Data Articles & Ideas Will=
Dollar be Fuelled against the Euro? Euro: The Lonely Tender Articl=
es & Ideas Forex Glossary Economic Indicators Forex Guides Link Libra=
ry [IMAGE] =09
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