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[IMAGE] Forums Discuss these points in the Forums: Forexnews Forum T= echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca J.P. Chorek= Technical Research Ltd. Charts & News featuring Standard & Poor's = Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 1.75% 0.15% 3.= 25% 4.0% 1.25-2.25% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] Wall Street Set To End = Week Lower, But USD Adds To Gains January 18, 7:00 AM: EUR/$..0.8811 $/JPY.= .132.84 GBP/$..1.4350 $/CHF..1.6684 Wall Street Set To End Week Lower, But= USD Adds To Gains by Jes Black At 8:30:00 AM US Nov Int. Trade (exp -28.8= bln, prev -29.4 bln) At 9:45:00 AM US Jan Univ of Michigan Sent prel (exp = 89.3, prev 88.8) The dollar held onto its gains on Friday, going into the = US session up about one percent against the majors since Monday. USD rose s= teadily despite a roughshod week on Wall Street that fluctuated with the mi= xed data and sentiment. The Dow fell nearly 300 points by mid-week before r= allying overnight on more upbeat data and earnings announcements after Wedn= esday's sell-off. In Tokyo trade, USD/JPY surprised the market with a rall= y to a 1-week high of 133.03 after holding above support at 132.40 overnigh= t. The move bodes well for a resumption of its rally after a weeklong decli= ne stabilized around 131.80 on Tuesday as corrective yen buying slowed. USD= is now targeting last week's 3-year high of 133.37. Support is seen at 132= .40 and 131.80, the 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracements of the move from= 133.37 to this week's low of 130.85. Resistance is seen at last week's 3-y= ear high of 133.37 and only a break of this level is seen bringing back the= bull, dealers say. EUR/JPY regained the 117 level after hitting an overni= ght low of 116.01. Again, moves in the JPY will be important to watch as mo= st of EUR/USD losses on Tuesday and Wednesday came on the back of a steep f= all in EUR/JPY to a low of 115.67 from a high of 119.37 last week, or a 3% = drop. Since EUR/JPY rise was steeper than that of USD/JPY there was a steep= er reversal. Support is now seen at 116.50 followed by key support at 115.6= 0. Resistance is seen at 117.00 and 117.50. A close above 116.50 will be ne= eded in order to maintain its bullish momentum, dealers say. Overnight com= ments from Japan's PM Koizumi and FinMin Shiokawa showed their reluctance t= o talk about the yen, except to say that it was for markets to determine th= e appropriate levels. However, BoJ Governor Hayami interjected that no cent= ral bank likes a weak currency and that it was important for Japan to maint= ain a strong yen. Hayami also said other central banks have questioned Japa= n's yen stance, but that the BoJ is not tolerating a weak yen, nor the MoF.= These remarks failed to stem the yen's fall as markets see further weaknes= s ahead for the JPY ahead of painful reforms. EUR/USD hovered in a tight 2= 0 pip range around 88 cents as lack of European data kept currencies moveme= nts to a minimum in London trade. Markets are also eyeing this morning's US= economic data as well as a key meeting between representatives of the Nati= onal Association of Manufacturers (NAM) and the US Treasury Undersecretary = for International Affairs Taylor to discuss the consequences of a strong do= llar. Therefore, dealers were careful not to get to enthusiastic about the = dollar ahead of today's meeting given that when this happened last July, US= D fell because the administration appeared uncertain over the strong dollar= policy. NAM Vice President Vargo argues that the strong dollar policy is = hurting US exports and slowing down the recovery of the US economy. Vargo t= hinks that the dollar is currently overvalued because of its strength again= st the major currencies in spite of the US slowdown. However, manufacturers= are unlikely to get the US administration to change its policy given the n= eed to continue to finance the US current account deficit with foreign infl= ows of capital. A fall in USD would stem that flow. Moreover, the US admini= stration is expected to continue to let JPY fall in order to keep Japan fro= m falling into a deflationary spiral as many economists fear. In fact, the= first data to be released today is the international trade figures for Nov= ember. The large deficit is expected to fall slightly, as it usually does i= n a recession, to 28.8 from 29.4 billion. Like past recessions, imports are= expected to decrease faster than exports as a consequence of the global sl= owdown. Markets will be more interested in knowing how the consumer perce= ives the economic outlook and the University of Michigan's confidence surve= y is forecasted to rise to 89.3 in the preliminary January reading from the= previous 88.8. This would be the fourth consecutive gain, but today's cons= umer sentiment data isn't expected to move markets unless it surprises on t= he up or downside. Meanwhile, the majority of major earnings announcements= came to pass this week. Overnight, Microsoft saw strong sales that topped = Wall Street expectations, prompting a rebound in US stocks. Positive earnin= gs from Citigroup, Compaq, General Electric, Apple Computer and Sears, as w= ell as the rebound in the Philadelphia Fed survey pushed the Dow up by 1.4%= or 137 points to 9850 and NASDAQ by 2% or 41 points to 1985. But US stock = futures look poised to spoil those gains with Dow down 59 and Nasdaq down 2= 5. Today's key release includes Sun Microsystems which is expected to show = a small loss in Q4. GBP/USD fell to key support around 1.4330 in European = trade after plunging to a 5-week low of 1.4300 overnight. But losses were m= itigated by sterling's strength against the euro, which was trading near an= overnight 3-week low near 61.20 pence. Since EMU mania subsided EUR/GBP is= now back to trading around Jan 1 levels. However, cable's position will re= main weak if it cannot maintain above 1.4440 after it fell from last Monday= 's 2-week high of 1.4513, a 2-cent drop in 4 days. Resistance is seen at 1.= 4390, 1.4440, 1.4480, 1.450 and 1.4550. Key support at 1.4330, the 50% Fibo= nacci retracement of the move from 1.4060 to 1.4606. A break of that level = would call upon 1.43 on its way to 1.4267, the 61.8% retracement of the sam= e move. USD/CHF fully recovered from Wednesday's 1% sell off to a low of 1= .6445. Swissy regained support at 1.6540 and successfully broke back throug= h resistance at 1.6680 on its way to a day's high of 1.6702 in London trade= . Gains are seen capped at this week's high of 1.6730, which marks the 61.8= % Fibonacci retracement of the move from 1.6955 to 1.6355. Support is seen = at 1.6540 and 1.6510. Major trendline support is seen at 1.6460. =09[IM= AGE] Audio Mkt. Analysis Earnings, Philly Fed Survey Support Dollar = Articles & Ideas Philly Fed-Supported Optimism EUR/USD: Technical Analys= is Articles & Ideas Forex Glossary Economic Indicators Forex Guid= es Link Library [IMAGE] =09 =09=09[IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]=09 =09=09 This e-mail is never sent unsolicited. If you wish to unsubscribe fr= om this or any other Forexnews.com newsletters, please click here . Any op= inions expressed by representatives of Forexnews.com or its affiliates as t= o the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of spe= cific currencies reflect the views of the individual analyst, and do not ne= cessarily represent the views of Forexnews.com or its affiliates in any way= . In no event shall Forexnews.com or its affiliates have any liability for = any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inactio= n taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this mate= rial; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of informatio= n. =09
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