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[IMAGE] Forums Discuss these points in the Forums: Forexnews Forum T= echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca J.P. Chorek= Technical Research Ltd. Charts & News featuring Standard & Poor's = Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 1.75% 0.15% 3.= 25% 4.0% 1.25-2.25% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] USD Eases Off JPY, But Hit= s New 6-Month High vs Euro February 1, 7:00 AM: EUR/$..0.8605 $/JPY..133.9= 2 GBP/$..1.4100 $/CHF..1.7165 USD Eases Off JPY, But Hits New 6-Month High= vs Euro by Jes Black At 8:30:00 AM US Jan Avg Hourly Earn. (exp 0.2%, pre= v 0.5%) US Jan Payroll Employ. (exp -27k, prev -124k) US Jan Unemployment (= exp 5.9%, prev 5.8%) At 9:45:00 AM US Jan Univ of Michigan Sent. Final (ex= p 94.3, prev 88.8) At 10:00 AM US Jan PMI (exp 49.4, prev 48.2) USD/JPY ma= intained above 133.80 in European trade as the dollar whipsawed against the= European majors, first higher then back again. The dollar retraced part of= an overnight 2.5 yen surge to a fresh 40-month high of 1356.15, but found = support above 133.60, which marks the 61.8% retracement of the rally. Meanw= hile, favorable European manufacturing data helped the euro off a fresh 6-m= onth low of 85.64 but trade steadied soon afterwards as dealers are now loo= king to the final leg of a key US data week for direction. Markets will wat= ch to see if the US economy can retain its positive outlook ahead of the Ja= nuary US employment report, PMI data and the University of Michigan consume= r sentiment survey. Traders are expecting further improvement in today's d= ata after US economic indicators have turned sharply positive. Most notably= this week was the astonishing 0.2% rise in 4Q01 GDP. While the market was = looking for a decline of around 1%, it again underestimated the ability of = US consumers to shop -- even in a recession. In fact, the incredible 5.4% a= nnualized rise in consumer was a recession spending record, just edging out= the 5.1% rise in 2Q60. Given the tumultuous week on Wall Street, dealers = will still look to movements there for direction. Today's futures are down = 15 points on the Dow and 4 on the Nasdaq. Today's earnings announcements ar= e light, with only a handful of companies reporting. Therefore, the market = will react more to today's economic data. First on today's list is the job= s report for January which is expected to shed a mere 27k after last months= 124k loss. This would be a marked improvement reflecting the improving tre= nd in jobless claims in recent weeks. Then comes the final revision to th= e University of Michigan's confidence survey. The headline figure is expect= ed to stay steady at 94.3 in January, up from the previous 88.8. However, i= t is not anticipated to generate waves in FX markets, as forecasts call for= the final January reading to remain virtually unchanged at 94.3. More im= portant will be the ISM (formerly NAPM) Purchasing Managers Index as it loo= ks poised to jump to 49.4 in January from the previous 48.2, possibly even = breaching the key 50-level which marks expansion/contraction. On Thursday,= the Chicago PMI rose to 45.1 in January from the previous 41.5. Regional m= anufacturing was boosted as the production component broke above the key 50= -level for the first time since December 2000 into expansionary territory t= o 50.4 in January. Nevertheless, this month's reading marked the 18th month= the manufacturing sector has been in contraction. This compared to the r= elatively light manufacturing recession going on in Europe. Today's PMI fig= ures also showed a good recovery with UK PMI rising to 46.2 in January from= 45.2 the eleventh consecutive decline. Eurozone PMI also rose to a high of= 46.2 in January from 44.1. Although the figure still marked a tenth month = of contraction, markets were optimistic that the euro area would follow the= US out of a recession. Meanwhile, traders will also be monitoring this w= eek's World Economic Forum in New York and next week's G7 meeting in Toront= o for any dollar policy rhetoric in light of the recent complaints about th= e strong dollar by manufacturers. However, the dollar is not likely to com= e under pressure after yesterday's remarks by Treasury Secretary O'Neill th= at he had no sympathy for complaints by US manufacturers about the strong d= ollar because good companies do not "live and die" by exchange rates. Furth= ermore, he said that the current account balance is an "artifact", or an ou= tdated way of looking at the economy, countering arguments that the dollar = is overvalued because of the imbalance in the US current account. EUR/USD = rose to a day's high of 86-cents following the better than expected PMI dat= a. But the downside risks have increased after the pair breached former sup= port at 85.75 to hit a new 6-month low of 85.65. The euro was not helped by= the jump in January euro area inflation to 2.5% as expected. Now, the pair= risks closing below support at 86 cents after failing to hold onto gains a= bove 86.30 overnight. Moreover, the single currency would need to regain th= e 86.80/90 mark to really improve its outlook. Resistance is viewed at 86.8= 0, and the key 87.40/50 level which marks the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement o= f the move from 82.25 to 95.95. A break of 85.60/70 is seen calling upon su= pport at 85.0 and 84.50, which marks the long-term trendline support extend= ing from its 82.25 lows. GBP/USD fell to a day's low of 1.4063, after ste= rling dropped from a day's high of 60.72 pence to the euro to a 61 pence lo= w. The rise in EUR/GBP put sterling under pressure to below Thursday's low = of $1.4085. Support is seen at this week's 6-month lows around 1.4040. Resi= stance at 1.4183, which marks the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.4418= -1.4038 move, has held so far. Barring a break of this resistance, renewed = weakness could prevail. USD/CHF rose to a 6-month high of 1.7232 before pa= ring gains back to support around 1.7150. Follow up support is seen at 1.70= 60 and 1.6945, the 50% retracement of the 1.8220 to 1.5770 move. Also keepi= ng pressure on the franc was the Swiss KoF indicator which fell to -1.37 in= December from -1.28, marking a worsening of conditions, not a turnaround a= s many had hoped. Therefore, given the recent bullish data and positive out= look by the Fed, USD/CHF should remain well supported. =09[IMAGE] Audio Mk= t. Analysis Yen Battered Across the Board Articles & Ideas USD/JPY: = ONeill, Koizumi and January Effect Fed Moves On, Dollar Moves Up A= rticles & Ideas Forex Glossary Economic Indicators Forex Guides Link = Library [IMAGE] =09 =09=09[IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]=09 =09=09 This e-mail is never sent unsolicited. If you wish to unsubscribe f= rom this or any other Forexnews.com newsletters, please click here . Any = opinions expressed by representatives of Forexnews.com or its affiliates as= to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of s= pecific currencies reflect the views of the individual analyst, and do not = necessarily represent the views of Forexnews.com or its affiliates in any w= ay. In no event shall Forexnews.com or its affiliates have any liability fo= r any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inact= ion taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this ma= terial; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of informat= ion. =09
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