|
|
Enron Mail |
[IMAGE] Forums Discuss these points in the Forums: Forexnews Forum T= echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca J.P. Chorek= Technical Research Ltd. Charts & News featuring Standard & Poor's = Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 1.75% 0.15% 3.= 25% 4.0% 1.25-2.25% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] Euro Rally Running Out of = Steam Despite Dollar Weakness February 12, 7:00 AM: EUR/$..0.8750 $/JPY..1= 33.60 GBP/$..1.4263 $/CHF..1.6872 Euro Rally Running Out of Steam Despite = Dollar Weakness by Jes Black At 8:40:00 AM US Redbook (exp n/f, prev 3.9%)= At 10:00:00 AM US Jan Rich Fed Survey Shipments (exp n/f, prev -25) The e= uro again failed to break the 88-cent mark in European trade today despite = again being helped by sterling's gains against the dollar. EUR/USD rose to = a day's high of 88.00 but retreated back to a low of 87.41 as offers in the= 88.00/10 kept the upside in check. However, GBP/USD continued to forge ahe= ad, breaking key resistance at 1.4235 today, triggering stops on its way to= a new two-week high of 1.4285. Reaction to news that Germany was not form= ally warned about its budget deficit at today's Ecofin meeting in Brussels = was muted, but seen as a positive for the euro. Germany was facing censure = for allowing its deficit to come close to the 3% of GDP limit. Nevertheless= , underlining today's compromise was the difficulty facing the Eurozone's l= argest economy caught between the European Central Bank not lowering intere= st rates and Germany's own brain child -- the Growth and Stability Pact. O= ffers at 88.00/10 kept a cap on EUR/USD again today after yesterday's wave = of stop-loss buying failed to develop a more sustainable demand for the eur= o. The single currency still needs to clear 88 cents followed by key resist= ance at 88.75/80 to remove its bearish outlook. That level marks the 61.8% = retracement of this year's high to low of 90.63 to 85.63. Looking forward, = unless the single currency can rise above the 88.80-cent level, its momentu= m should wane and turn back south again. Key support is seen at 87.50 and 8= 7.00. The euro also reversed course against the pound after a test of 61.9= 5 last Friday was rejected. Today's break below 61.55 support triggered sto= p loss sales on its way to a low of 61.32. Therefore, renewed pressure on t= he pair could carry it back towards this month's lows around 60.68 pence. T= his would cause the euro to give up any further gains on the back of a rise= in GBP/USD. Sterling was little changed by an unexpected jump in UK infla= tion to a high of 2.6% in January from 1.9% the month before. This was a su= rprising rise above the Bank of England's target rate of 2.5% so the market= will be interested in hearing Wednesday's Bank of England inflation foreca= st that should provide clues on interest rate hikes later this year. Strong= er than expected inflation would lead to further expectations for the UK to= be the first major country to raise interest rates this year as the BoE tr= ies to stem debt fueled consumer spending. Markets will also want to know i= f the bank revises its growth outlook for the UK. GBP/USD is currently tra= ding above 1.4275, but gains are seen limited to the 1.4335 area, which mar= ks the 61.8% retracement of the move from 1.4515-1.4040 move. Without a bre= ak of that level, the pair remains heavy, dealers say. Support seen at prev= ious resistance levels of 1.4235 and 1.4180. USD/CHF also recovered from a= n earlier low of 1.6779 reached at the start of European trade, and rebound= ed to a day's high of 1.6887. The sharp rally ended around resistance at 1.= 6880. For the near term USD/CHF needs to maintain above 1.6820 to avoid fur= ther fall to the 1.6685 area. This level marks the 61.8% retracement of the= 1.6350-1.7229 rally, which should hold dealers say. Resistance is seen at = 1.6880. Economic data on Monday showed the Swiss January jobless rate rose= to 2.6% from 2.4% in December, as expected. Recent comments from the Swiss= National Bank show they are still concerned by the strong Swiss franc agai= nst the euro due to the pressure on trade. Blattner also rejected an exchan= ge rate target for Switzerland and stated that the bank should not cut rate= s to weaken the franc. His comments contrasts with earlier comments from bo= ard member Gehrig and SNB president Roth that have singled out the currency= as very important to the Swiss economy as well as having expressed concern= over the strength of the franc. There is little in the way of economic da= ta this week until Wednesday. Today's only release is the Richmond Fed surv= ey which is likely to show that manufacturing activity stabilized last mont= h, lending support to recovery being right around the corner. Despite two = consecutive days of gains on Wall Street, the dollar will continue to take = its cue from the stock market and today's congressional hearings and the mu= ch-anticipated testimony of former Enron CEO Kenneth Lay before the Senate = Commerce Committee will take center stage. Lay will take the stand at 9:30 = AM EST, but will likely take the fifth to not incriminate himself. Today's= earnings include Applied Materials, BP Amoco, Fox Entertainment and Pruden= tial Financial, Inc. =09[IMAGE] Audio Mkt. Analysis EUR/JPY Sets the Pace = Articles & Ideas The Swiss National Bank and the franc A Weak Yen = Bites Articles & Ideas Forex Glossary Economic Indicators Forex G= uides Link Library [IMAGE] =09 =09=09[IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]=09 =09=09 This e-mail is never sent unsolicited. If you wish to unsubscribe f= rom this or any other Forexnews.com newsletters, please click here . Any = opinions expressed by representatives of Forexnews.com or its affiliates as= to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of s= pecific currencies reflect the views of the individual analyst, and do not = necessarily represent the views of Forexnews.com or its affiliates in any w= ay. In no event shall Forexnews.com or its affiliates have any liability fo= r any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inact= ion taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this ma= terial; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of informat= ion. =09
|