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[IMAGE] Forums Discuss these points in the Forums: Forexnews Forum T= echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca J.P. Chorek= Technical Research Ltd. Charts & News featuring Standard & Poor's = Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 2.0% 0.15% 3.2= 5% 4.0% 1.75-2.75% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] Euro Slips on Ifo Dip, USD = Outlook Steady November 21, 7:00 AM: EUR/$..0.8796 $/JPY..122.85 GBP/$..1.= 4196 $/CHF..1.6559 Euro Slips on Ifo Dip, USD Outlook Steady by Jes Black = At 8:30:00 AM US Nov 17 Jobless Claims (exp 450 k, prev 444k) At 10:00:00 = AM US Nov final U. of Michigan index (exp 83, prev 83.5) At 2:00:00 PM US O= ct Fed. Budget (exp -11 bln, prev 35.4 bln) The euro came under pressure= today following another fall in the key business sentiment survey for Germ= any. The Ifo business survey fell to an 8-year low of 84.7 in October after= plunging in September to 85.0 from 89.5. Since the headline index did not = stabilize, it implies that September's steep decline was not just an overre= action to the terrorist attacks on the US and that the economic environment= in the Eurozone is actually worse than previously thought. More trouble li= es ahead for the Eurozone considering the expectations index fell to 89.6 f= rom a downwardly revised 90.5, meaning that we still have not seen a bottom= in the Ifo or the euro. EUR/USD fell to a session low of 87.81 after the= release but held above a 3-month low of 87.67 reached on Monday. The euro = has still to test key resistance around 87.45, but with the Eurozone's numb= er one economy now teetering on the edge of a recession, markets are likely= to punish the euro again. On Tuesday, the Bundesbank's monthly report for = November indicated that Q3 growth was likely to be zero to negative after p= osting slightly negative growth in Q2 of -0.003%. The Ifo report suggests t= hat Q4 growth will also be negative and that could push Germany into a tech= nical recession. Today's release by the European Union forecasted growth in= Germany to stagnate at 0.7% in both 2001 and 2002. USD/JPY fell to a sess= ion low of 122.57 after failing to break key resistance around 123.40 earli= er in the day. JPY came under renewed pressure this morning after S?Tokyo H= ead Chang Yu-Tsung was quoted as saying Japan's sovereign rating could be d= owngraded again after the S?revised its outlook on Japan's AA rating to "ne= gative" in September. However, offers reported around 123.50 kept a cap on = the dollar's gains. A fall in EUR/JPY from highs around 108.81 to a session= low of 107.74 also gave JPY some strength. USD/JPY rose to a 3-month hig= h of 123.49 on Monday and has since eased off its highs. But any selling co= ming ahead of the long holiday weekend should not be enough to offset the o= verall bullish trend. Sentiment continues to underpin USD because of the re= newed momentum in US equities as investors show an increasing appetite for = risk. The yen will also stay under pressure from mounting worries about the= Japanese banking sector ahead of a slew of earnings reports by major Japan= ese banks on Thursday. Moreover, with little room for improvement in the Ja= panese economy until late next year, most market watchers see the yen headi= ng for 125 now that it has successfully breached the 123 mark. Resistance i= s seen around 123.35/45. But USD/JPY support is expected to hold at 121.95/= 122.00 followed by 121.40/50, with any pullback towards the latter level se= en as a buying opportunity, dealers said. GBP/USD remained in a tight rang= e of 1.4150 to 1.42. The dollar held sterling's recovery to the 1.42 mark a= fter cable plunged to a 3-month low of 1.4080 on Tuesday morning. Cable was= little moved by the fall in EUR/USD as it was offset by a simultaneous fal= l in EUR/USD. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is still in a bearish trend given its inab= ility to maintain gains above the key technical level of 1.4195. US Q3 GDP= due next Friday is expected to show a decline of 0.9%, but St. Louis Fed P= resident Poole on Tuesday affirmed US economic growth would revive in a mat= ter of months and not years because of low inflation, competitive markets a= nd the combination of Fed and fiscal policy that are supporting the economy= . However, Poole cautioned that an exact recovery was uncertain, but that t= he Fed still has more room to cut US interest rates if needed. Given the h= igh degree of uncertainty surrounding the US, the Fed's commitment to growt= h is one of the reason's the dollar has performed well despite the near cer= tainty of a recession. It is also explains why the Morgan Stanley Capital I= nternational index is expected to be reweighed in favor of US equities. On = the basis of the adjustments MSCI is making, Japan, France and Germany are = likely to see the most money leaving their markets, while the UK and US wil= l be the largest beneficiaries. Today's data from the US is expected to sh= ow jobless claims have edged off the 500k pace in October. However, the con= tinuing layoffs is expected to push the final reading of the Univ. of Mich = consumer sentiment survey down to 83.0 from 83.5 previously. =09[IMAGE] A= udio Mkt. Analysis USD Pairs Gain Across the Board Articles & Ideas = USD/JPY: The Next Level OPEC: The beginning of a price war? Article= s & Ideas Forex Glossary Economic Indicators Forex Guides Link Librar= y [IMAGE] =09 =09=09[IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]=09 =09=09 This e-mail is never sent unsolicited. If you wish to unsubscribe f= rom this or any other Forexnews.com newsletters, please click here . =09
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