|
|
Enron Mail |
[IMAGE] Forums Discuss these points in the Forums: Forexnews Forum T= echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca J.P. Chorek= Technical Research Ltd. Charts & News featuring Standard & Poor's = Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 1.75% 0.15% 3.= 25% 4.0% 1.25-2.25% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] JPY Soars To Spectacular H= eights On Speculative Flows March 7, 7:00 AM: EUR/$..0.8763 $/JPY..128.82 = GBP/$..1.4203 $/CHF..1.6803 JPY Soars To Spectacular Heights On Speculativ= e Flows by Jes Black At 7:00 AM BoE MPC meeting (exp 4.0%, prev 4.0%) At 7= :45 AM ECB meeting (exp 3.25%, prev 3.25%) At 8:30:00 AM US Q4 Unit Labor C= osts rev (exp -1.4%, prev -1.1%) US Q4 Productivity Rev (exp 3.9%, prev 3.5= %) US Jobless Claims (exp 370k, prev 378k) At 3:00:00 PM US Jan Consumer Cr= edit (exp -3.1 bln, prev -5.1 bln) At 10:00 AM Fed Chairman Greenspan spee= ch before Senate Banking Committee. The dollar recovered from sharp losse= s against the European majors in London trade but extended its slide agains= t the yen on Thursday as speculators who had been on the sidelines poured i= n to go long the yen. Japan's Nikkei also continued its climb and the gover= nment's resolve to boost Japanese assets ahead of March 31 is likely to fen= d off any negative news that comes its way. JPY added to its weeklong gains= exploding through key options positions to hit 10-week highs of 128.68 and= 112.87 against the dollar and euro. JPY has recovered sharply from its la= st test of 135 resistance vs USD, rising over 4% in the past 7 trading days= and the dollar is now threatening chart support at 127.75, which marks the= 38.2% retracement of the 115.75-135.15 move. This should provide a solid b= ase for a corrective rally in USD/JPY but supporting the yen were signs tha= t US fund managers would increase their exposure to Japan just as governmen= t officials have created an artificial floor under share prices through str= icter short selling laws. Combined with repatriation fears ahead of March 3= 1 further yen gains cannot be ruled out. Support seen at 128.60, 128.00 and= 127.75. Resistance is eyed at 130.50, 130.90, and 131.50. There was littl= e buzz ahead of today's two monetary policy meetings from the Eurozone and = UK as both are expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.25% and 4.0% amid sign= s that the economic malaise is over. Today's better-than-expected 0.1% ri= se in Swiss GDP avoided expectations of recession and points to signs the S= wiss economy may also be past the worst, making it less likely the central = bank will pare interest rates for a fifth time in a year when policy makers= meet on March 21. The Swiss Purchasing Managers' index on industrial activ= ity in February rose last week to an eight-month high, and the KOF institut= e's leading economic indicators gained for the first time in almost two yea= rs in January. USD/CHF maintained around 1.68 after a brief fall to 1.6735.= With increased confidence, German Fin Min Eichel said today that economic= growth in the euro zone could reach a rate of 3% by the end of 2002. Eiche= l's comments come ahead of today's ECB meeting at 7:45 AM, where the market= expects no rate change due to improving conditions. A jump in Germany's If= o business climate index to a six-month high, improved purchasing managers'= surveys and other indicators all back the ECB's view that the economy shou= ld regain momentum later in the year. Sterling is also trading steady ahea= d of today's Bank of England monetary policy committee meeting. The majorit= y of economists believe that the BoE will keep rates steady at 4.0%, partic= ularly after the central bank governor Eddie George made comments with the = intent of dampening market hopes for interest rate hikes later in the year.= Sharp USD/JPY losses on Thursday added fuel to the euro's fire as it clim= bed to new highs of 61.70 pence and 88.13 cents. But a subsequent plunge in= EUR/JPY to a new 3-month low of 112.65 wiped out most of the euro's sharp = gains against the dollar and sent it back to support around a day's low of = 87.55. Maintaining above this level will be key for the euro in order to ta= ke out 88.10 cents which is the 50% retracement of this year's move 90.63 t= o 85.63. From there, the euro faces its next resistance at 88.50. Support i= s viewed at 87.0, backed by 86.65 and 86.30. GBP/USD broke through tough r= esistance at 1.4245 and hit a new high of 1.4313 despite added gains in EUR= /GBP from trendline support at 61.15 to a new high of 61.70 which has kept = sterling under pressure. But sterling gave back most of those gains and fel= l to a day's low of 1.4220. Therefore, resistance is still eyed at 1.4240/5= 0, 1.4280 and 1.430. Support holds at 1.4180 and 1.4130. Despite a falling= dollar, stock markets powered higher this week amid increasing confidence = in an economic recovery after being held back by Enronitis for the last cou= ple months. But growing confidence in a simultaneous global recovery has se= nt some investors overseas in search of higher returns given the high price= s of US equities. This has put European and Japanese assets in demand and i= s sapping strength from the capital inflow dependant dollar. Today's data= is expected to confirm upbeat projections and key US productivity data sho= uld be revised higher in line with the recent upward revision in GDP Q4. Li= kewise, chain store sales growth is expected to be strong again in February= , indicating continued consumer resilience. Fed Chairman Greenspan is also= due to testify before the US Senate Banking committee at 10:00 AM. Today's= speech by Greenspan on monetary policy is not likely to deviate from last = week's guarded optimism, but given the recent spate of data, Greenspan may = sound more upbeat. Friday's key US labor market report will also keep doll= ar bulls anxiously awaiting further signs of recovery which may pull the gr= eenback out of rangebound trading. But the dollar's recent failure to benef= it from strong data and Wall Street's gains has left dollar bulls feeling u= ncertain. =09[IMAGE] Audio Mkt. Analysis USD/JPY Hits 2-month Low Ar= ticles & Ideas Will Dollar be Fuelled against the Euro? Euro: The Lonely= Tender Articles & Ideas Forex Glossary Economic Indicators Forex= Guides Link Library [IMAGE] =09 =09=09[IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]=09 =09=09 This e-mail is never sent unsolicited. If you wish to unsubscribe f= rom this or any other Forexnews.com newsletters, please click here . Any = opinions expressed by representatives of Forexnews.com or its affiliates as= to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of s= pecific currencies reflect the views of the individual analyst, and do not = necessarily represent the views of Forexnews.com or its affiliates in any w= ay. In no event shall Forexnews.com or its affiliates have any liability fo= r any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inact= ion taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this ma= terial; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of informat= ion. =09
|