|
|
Enron Mail |
[IMAGE] Forums Discuss these points in the Forums: Forexnews Forum T= echnicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca J.P. Chorek= Technical Research Ltd. Charts & News featuring Standard & Poor's = Interest Rates US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland: 1.75% 0.15% 3.= 25% 4.0% 1.25-2.25% [IMAGE] =09 [IMAGE] USD Regains Footing vs Eur= opean Majors and Yen March 12, 7:00 AM: EUR/$..0.8733 $/JPY..128.53 GBP/$.= .1.4163 $/CHF..1.6797 USD Regains Footing vs European Majors and Yen by Je= s Black At 8:55:00 AM US Weekly Redbook Sales (exp n/f, prev 0.7%) At 9:00= :00 AM US BTM/UBSW Weekly Sales (exp n/f, prev -0.8%) At 10:00:00 AM US Feb= ruary Richmond Fed Survey Shipment (exp n/f, prev 4) US February Richmond F= ed Service Revenues (exp n/f, prev 8) At 11:00:00 AM US Weekly ISI Company= Index (exp n/f, prev 42.1) The dollar staged a comeback on Tuesday, break= ing key resistance levels against the euro and sterling, while climbing to = a day's high of 128.95 yen in London trade. The stabilization against the y= en makes calling the short-term direction difficult ahead of FY-end in Marc= h, but most dealers point out that current levels mark good entry points to= go long USD/JPY over the medium term. Meanwhile, today's gains against the= European majors put their recent rallies in question. Data from the Euroz= one today contrasted with last week's upbeat figures from the US. Euro area= 2001 Q4 GDP showed an expected contraction of 0.2%, putting it up a mere 0= .6% from a year earlier. The data had little impact on EUR/USD but did high= light the growth divergence after the surprising revision in US Q4 GDP from= 0.2% to 1.4%. EUR/USD broke below key support at 87.35, which marks the = 50% retracement of the move from 86.29 to 88.39, and fell to a 1-week low o= f 87.20. More importantly, the pair now lies below 87.30, which is the tren= dline support of the bull move from 86.29. A break of 87.20 would call upon= support at 87.10/00, and a break of that key support would damage the bull= ish sentiment and force many dealers to call 88.39 the high and look for po= ssible new lows below 86.29. Resistance seen at 87.60, which marks the 61.8= % retracement of the move from 86.29 to 88.39. The larger than expected de= cline in UK industrial production data also helped the dollar gain ground t= oday against the pound. Data from the UK was expected to show industrial pr= oduction rose slightly in January by 0.1% after falling 10 of the previous = 12 months. Instead, production contracted by 0.5% m/m to bring the annual r= ate down to -5.2% from -4.6%. Manufacturing data also contracted 0.4% m/m a= nd 6.1% y/y in January. Today's data contrasts with the sharp break back ab= ove the key 50 level in the US ISM survey on manufacturing which gave dolla= r bulls a reason to sell GBP/USD. GBP/USD broke below key support at 1.418= 0/85 and quickly fell to a new day's low of 1.4117 as it tripped stop loss = orders along the way to a 1.5-week low before recovering to around 1.4150. = Cable breached 1.4135 which marks trendline support from the 1.4043 low of = this year. Support is seen at 1.4140 followed by 1.4110. Resistance at 1.42= 20, 1.4250, 1.4300 and the 200-day moving average of 1.4333. USD/CHF bounc= ed off support at 1.6780 which is the 50% retracement of the rise from the = year's low of 1.6356 to the year's high of 1.7222. However, it could not re= gain its 200-day moving average of 1.6840 after it slipped below this level= last week. Next support seen at 1.67, backed by 1.6680--the 61.8% retracem= ent of the aforementioned move. Upside faces initial pressure at 1.6840 fol= lowed by 1.6885-the 38% retracement of the move. Next target seen at 1.6935= -40. Against the yen, the dollar climbed back from an overnight low of 127= .75 to a session high of 128.95, but offers from Japanese exporters and spe= culators capped gains and held the pair below Monday's high of 129.15. USD/= JPY rose to a day's high as profit-taking in the Nikkei's four-day rally of= 5% last week pushed shares back 2% on Tuesday. There still remains doubt a= s to whether the Nikkei can maintain its recent gains after the March 31 fi= scal year end and whether the spectacular rise in yen on speculative tradin= g will come undone over the next few weeks. BoJ Governor Hayami alluded to = this on Friday when he said he expected the market to be stable through the= end of March, but did not say what could happen afterwards. USD/JPY was a= lso supported by further indications from Japanese officials that the yen's= sharp rise last week was problematic for the Ministry of Finance which pre= fers a stable currency. Economics Minister Takenaka reiterated today that t= he yen's recent rise was too rapid and his comments were expected to keep s= peculators at bay. This followed Zembei Mizoguchi, head of the finance mini= stry's international bureau, who warned on Monday the authorities were prep= ared to take intervene in the markets if necessary. This morning's announc= ement by the Japanese Government Pension Investment Fund had little effect = on the yen despite it showing the fund would shift its weighting to 8% fore= ign bonds from 6% and reduce its holding of domestic stocks and bonds in re= sponse. Dealers say the 9 trillion yen in new money will likely be put in f= oreign assets too. USD/JPY is now supported at 127.75, which marks the 38.= 2% retracement of the 115.75-135.15 move. On Monday, it provided a solid ba= se for a corrective rally in the pair to a high of 129.15. However, specula= tors who had been on the sidelines have poured in to go long the yen. There= fore, USD/JPY could still target 125.28, the 50% retracement of the same mo= ve. More importantly, the yen is approaching its 200-day moving average of = 125 for the first time since November. Resistance is seen at Monday's high = of 129.15 followed by 129.65, 130.65 and 131.65 which mark the 38.25, 50%, = and 61.8% retracements of the move from 134.95 to 126.32. =09[IMAGE] Audio= Mkt. Analysis Dollar Drifts in Quiet Trading Articles & Ideas Yen's= March Madness Will Dollar be Fuelled against the Euro? Articles & = Ideas Forex Glossary Economic Indicators Forex Guides Link Library = [IMAGE] =09 =09=09[IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]=09 =09=09 This e-mail is never sent unsolicited. If you wish to unsubscribe f= rom this or any other Forexnews.com newsletters, please click here . Any = opinions expressed by representatives of Forexnews.com or its affiliates as= to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of s= pecific currencies reflect the views of the individual analyst, and do not = necessarily represent the views of Forexnews.com or its affiliates in any w= ay. In no event shall Forexnews.com or its affiliates have any liability fo= r any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inact= ion taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this ma= terial; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of informat= ion. =09
|