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Enron Mail |
Are the amounts below you've outlined (in tons) significant in this market,
and in their local markets? Jeff Robert Johnston 02/26/2001 01:33 PM To: Gary Hickerson/HOU/ECT@ECT, Jeffrey A Shankman/HOU/ECT@ECT cc: Elsa Piekielniak/Corp/Enron@Enron, Billy Lemmons/Corp/Enron@ENRON, Darren Maloney/Corp/Enron@ENRON, Trena McFarland/NA/Enron@Enron, Erin Willis/HOU/ECT@ECT Subject: Asian Softs 2/26 INDONESIAN COFFEE- STRONG BEARISH- FUNDS LACKING FOR RETENTION The Finance Minister, Prijadi Praptosuhardjo IS saying that the government has no money to finance the retention plan. According to a source close to AEKI, the government has not contacted the association at all. Another possible sore point is the interest rates charged by the banks for coffee retention. So far there has been no indication that favorable interest rates will be extended to AEKI. Some are concerned that the rate will be higher than that charged by the private banks. Due to the tension which exists on these issues, AEKI has threatened the government that if the money is not chanelled before April they will release 10,500 tons of coffee in their retained stock from the warehouses in Lampung and Medan. There are people who believe that 10,500 tons is "just the tip of the iceberg." There is more than 7,500 tons in stock in Lampung alone, according to an important domestic farmer in Lampung, who is close to our source. In fact the farmer estimates that Lampung itself has more than 10,000 tons and there are another 4,000 to 5,000 tons in Medan. VIETNAM COFFEE- STRONG BEARISH- VIETNAMESE DUMPING "PHANTOM STOCKS" IN NEIGHBORING MARKETS Our primary source comments that in his opinion, it may be true that there are additional stocks over the 150,000 tons as reported. Cambodia has been used as a dumping ground for Vietnam's extra quota sales. Upon investigation, our source learned that it is true that there are some excess stocks stored in Vietnam. He was informed by a source that the Vietnamese plan to release the stocks into Cambodia and also China to sponge up the excess supplies. They command a fixed price in the black markets of those countries and provide much needed foreign exchange to the Vietnam government. The secondary source said that this is common practice for Vietnam and they have done this for other cash commodities like Cashewnuts. The source does not know the exact figures, but estimates the excess to be 30,000 to 40,000 tons more than what has been acknowledged by the government.
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