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---------------------- Forwarded by Jeffrey A Shankman/HOU/ECT on 10/24/2000 01:48 PM --------------------------- Alex Mcleish@ENRON 10/24/2000 12:09 PM To: jennifer.fraser@enron.com, John L Nowlan/HOU/ECT@ECT, Jeffrey A Shankman/HOU/ECT@ECT cc: Subject: The stats Ahead of tonight's stats, I've gone through last week's numbers (note - DOE, not API) and a few things leap out as worth noting and looking for this week. Despite the API numbers, and the Mexican hurricane, crude imports were down just 150 kb/d, just 40 of which was in PADD 3 (Gulf Coast). Although imports are down from the peak in August, they still lie at least 500 kb/d above recent years' levels. Bizarrely, the SPR rose by 0.5 mbbls last week, and 70kb/d of imports were specifically allocated to SPR - partly offsetting the 4.5 mbbl commercial stock draw. There is no sign yet of distillate demand slowing, rather it continues to climb, and is well into winter levels. Distillate output is strong, due to very high yields, rather than high throughput. What does this mean for stocks? The refinery runs show we are well into the maintenance season, and crude stocks almost always rise this time of year. But if the weather disruptions did not show up in last week's DOEs, they may appear tomorrow. DOE crude stocks are 2.5mbbls above API. With distillate demand still storming, and runs falling, we could be in for another week or two of distillate draws. As a result of the yield and the runs, gasoline stocks will likely follow the seasonal pattern and fall once more. DOE mogas stocks are 3.5 mbbls below API. The consensus appears to be for builds across the board, but some of these factors might argue otherwise. Some charts are attached illustrating the points.
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