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---------------------- Forwarded by Jeffrey A Shankman/HOU/ECT on 11/07/2000 12:21 PM --------------------------- Alex Mcleish@ENRON 11/07/2000 10:39 AM To: Chris Mahoney/LON/ECT@ECT, Niamh Clarke/LON/ECT@ECT, Ross Koller/LON/ECT@ECT, John Buckner Thomas/LON/ECT@ECT, Mark Jones/LON/ECT@ECT, Alex Mcleish/EU/Enron@Enron, Tony O'Brien/LON/ECT@ECT, Henkka Talvitie/LON/ECT@ECT, John Spencer/EU/Enron@Enron, jennifer.fraser@enron.com, John L Nowlan/HOU/ECT@ECT, Jeffrey A Shankman/HOU/ECT@ECT, Stewart Peter/LON/ECT@ECT cc: Subject: Weekly Stats Outlook Crude: Stocks have risen during this week over the last five years by an average of 7 mbbls, the smallest increase being last year's 3 mbbls. One reason the trend is likely to be repeated is that the SPR shipped 2.45 mbbls last week, and this should again show up in PADD 3, while the drop in PADD 5 stocks (led by a sharp drop in imports) which offset the PADD 3 rise last week is unlikely to occur a second week. Overall imports remain high, and additional October barrels might just have found their way to the US from its closer OPEC neghbours. On the other hand, we have the Capline shutdown (due to lack of crude) which took place last week, and an increase in refinery runs out of turnaround, but I don't believe that will offset the factors pointing to a large build in crude stocks. (Consensus forecast up 2.5 mbbls. API still lower than the DOE by 2.4 mbbls) Distillate: After rising steadily since mid July, demand finally turned south last week, with a 640 kbd drop. This is the first evidence that borrowed demand is now being paid back. A second week of stats would confirm this, but the weakening sentiment on cracks lends some support to the theory. The build last week occurred despite a strong drop in imports - providing demand stays low, higher runs and high distillate yields should see a build, perhaps in excess of 1 mbbls. (Consensus forecast up 1 mbbls) Mogas: Gasoline demand has been sluggish for most of the year, but October sales were relatively strong, especially last week, which topped 8.7 mbd (8.9 in the DOEs), not far off the year's highs. October deliveries are invariably higher than both Sep and Nov, so the most likely direction for demand is down. Imports from Canada and Europe are said to be on the way, but may take some time before they show up in the stats - although some improvement should be seen after last week's miserly 212 kbd which accounted for much of the draw. However, the gasoline tanker stuck in NYH may skew the stats. PADD 1 again bore the lion's share of last week's draw, bringing stocks down to their lowest level since at least 1976 - it has lost 7 mbbls in four weeks. For RFG too, the region is looking short. This week is hard to call, but may point to a build, on the basis that strong demand and weak imports aren't sustained. (Consensus forecast down 1.5 mbbls. API still higher than DOE by 2.6 mbbls.) Stocks graphs attached
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