While we are continuing to work with Ted Murphy, etc, regarding component
VAR, expiry phenomena, and the other issues that are crucially important to
be able to effectively manage risk, (and prevent frequent violations), you
should know this is the most important immediate issue we face. Even with
the IT constraints, which Beth Perlman has done a good job addressing for me,
our organization is willing to do anything to help manage this process. I
have committed to Beth that will we help her find people with the ultimate
goal or being able to run real time VAR calculations. Rick's idea of
allocating VAR in times like this would certainly be helpful (while we work
to perfect our risk management capabilities), but is only a short term
On another note, I really believe we will see gas prices significantly higher
this year, and have been working with Gary Hickerson to identify the best
equity plays as well. Is there a way to further capitalize on our view, that
is, can Enron do anything structurally to capture more of this opportunity?
This gas move might be one of those once in a 100 year environments. (Board
permission, special vehicle, asset purchase, etc?)
Just as an FYI, even if all the ammonia and methane plants go down, the Nukes
run at +95% capacity, and there are no events to interrupt supply, we think
gas storage will end up at 2.55-2.6 Tcf at the end of the injection cycle.
I'd appreciate any ideas.