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Enron Mail |
FYI. Here is Dave's view of the precipitation outlook for HQ. Environment
Canada is indicating a dry year. Tom. ---------------------- Forwarded by Tom May/Corp/Enron on 02/05/2001 05:51 PM --------------------------- David Ryan 01/31/2001 12:51 PM To: Tom May/Corp/Enron@Enron cc: Subject: Re: HQ precipition First, I will say that this forecast is close to 2 months old already - and they will have a new one out March 1, I believe. It seems reading through some of their literature that they are basing this forecast on the assumption that we quickly come out of our weak/moderate La Nina in the Pacific and return to neutral conditions by the end of Spring - and weak to perhaps moderate El Nino conditions set up by the end of the year. From recent observations - this timing seems to be too quick. However, it is accepted by us and in the weather community that eventually a weak El Nino will develop. The timing may be for neutral conditions later in the summer and a weak El Nino by the end of the year. This is what we are favoring. So the effects may be for a neutral to slightly dry Summer and Fall in those areas, but we do not see anything significant. In fact in those regions, albeit a little drier than normal this winter, the snowpack has been established fairly nicely - so I would expect a fairly "normal" runoff period this Spring, as compared to last year when it was well below average. Bottom line - while certainly possible, recent conditions in the Pacific lead us to believe that the forecast from Environment Canada is too quick with the evolution of the pattern in the Pacific and therefore is overdone in the dry look for later in the year. -Dave
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