FW: Energy Market Report

Energy Market Report
Thursday, January 17, 2002

*See attached pdf file.
__________________________________________________________
Western Pre-Scheduled Firm Electricity Prices($/MWh)
January 17, 2002 for January 19, 2002

Peak(Heavy)
Low Change High Change
NW/N. Rockies 18.00 -2.00 19.00 -3.75
Mid-Columbia 18.00 -2.00 19.00 -3.75
COB 21.00 -2.75 22.00 -3.25
N. California 22.50 -4.25 25.25 -5.25
Midway/Sylmar NA NA NA NA
S. California 22.75 -5.25 25.75 -4.25
Mead 23.50 -4.25 26.00 -4.00
Palo Verde 22.50 -3.50 26.00 -4.50
Inland SW 22.50 -3.50 26.00 -4.50
4-Corners 22.75 -3.25 24.50 -4.50
Central Rockies 21.50 -4.50 23.50 -4.00
__________________________________________________________
Off-Peak(Light)
Low Change High Change
NW/N. Rockies 17.00 0.00 18.00 0.25
Mid-Columbia 17.00 0.00 18.00 0.25
COB 17.00 -0.50 19.00 1.00
N. California 18.00 -1.00 19.25 -0.25
Midway/Sylmar NA NA NA NA
S. California 18.50 0.50 20.00 0.25
Mead 18.75 0.75 19.75 0.25
Palo Verde 17.00 1.00 21.00 1.50
Inland SW 17.00 1.00 21.00 1.50
4-Corners 16.50 0.25 18.00 0.50
Central Rockies 16.00 0.25 18.00 0.50

__________________________________________________________
Western Pre-Scheduled Firm Electricity Prices($/MWh)
January 17, 2002 for January 20, 2002

Peak(Heavy)
Low Change** High Change**
NW/N. Rockies* 17.00 0.00 18.00 0.25
Mid-Columbia* 17.00 0.00 18.00 0.25
COB* 17.00 -0.50 19.00 1.00
N. California* 18.00 -1.00 19.25 -0.25
Midway/Sylmar* NA NA NA NA
S. California* 18.50 0.50 20.00 0.25
Mead* 18.75 0.75 19.75 0.25
Palo Verde* 17.00 1.00 21.00 1.50
Inland SW* 17.00 1.00 21.00 1.50
4-Corners* 16.50 0.25 18.00 0.50
Central Rockies* 16.00 0.25 18.00 0.50
__________________________________________________________
Off-Peak(Light)
Low Change** High Change**
NW/N. Rockies* 17.00 0.00 18.00 0.25
Mid-Columbia* 17.00 0.00 18.00 0.25
COB* 17.00 -0.50 19.00 1.00
N. California* 18.00 -1.00 19.25 -0.25
Midway/Sylmar* NA NA NA NA
S. California* 18.50 0.50 20.00 0.25
Mead* 18.75 0.75 19.75 0.25
Palo Verde* 17.00 1.00 21.00 1.50
Inland SW* 17.00 1.00 21.00 1.50
4-Corners* 16.50 0.25 18.00 0.50
Central Rockies* 16.00 0.25 18.00 0.50

*Denotes trading of flat, 24-hour products.
**"NA" changes are not applicable because prices for on and off peak goods
are not comparable to flat products.
__________________________________________________________
Accounting Regulations

Western peak power prices dropped for Saturday delivery amid waning weekend
loads, while light load prices were mostly higher due to the inclusion of
the all-day Sunday piece. A Monday/Tuesday package will be scheduled on
Friday so WSCC traders can take off Martin Luther King Day on Monday. While
MLK Day is not a recognized NERC holiday, it is a national holiday and a
NYMEX Exchange holiday. NYMEX Henry Hub gas futures fell Thursday despite a
firmer physical market, reportedly due to bearish fundamentals and some
technical selling. February and March Hub gas both closed at 2.254$/mmBtu,
down 14 cents and 10.9 cents, respectively. In the political arena, White
House Spokesperson Ari Fleischer finally admitted Enron executives did meet
with President Bush and other Administration officials during the drafting
of their energy policy, but insisted that the company did not receive any
favorable treatment. The letter to Ken Lay from Enron executive Sherron
Watkins has raised the possibility that the beleaguered company may be
forced to write-off an additional $1.3 billion in reported earnings. The
cash in question was generated by financial subsidiaries Condor and Raptor,
which were wholly backed by Enron stock. In the wake of Andersen's auditing
debacle, SEC Chairman Harvey Pitt said he intends to form a new committee
responsible for oversight and regulation of the accounting industry. In the
"too little, too late" category, Enron's Board of Directors voted Thursday
to fire Andersen as the company's auditors. No word yet on who the lucky
new accountants will be.

Heavy load energy costs in the Northwest fell by as much as 3.75$/MWh for
Saturday delivery, while trading in a tight range between 18 and 19$/MWh.
Light load goods, however, were flat to slightly higher, with confirmed
transactions between 17 and 18. Some traders seemed a little surprised by
the very narrow spread between light and heavy load prices, but as one
trader pointed out, "It's cold up here, especially for the off peak hours,
and throw in the all-day Sunday and it's no wonder why the spreads are
merging." There was also talk Thursday that some parties were concerned
over falling snowpack levels in the Northwest. According to the NWRFC's
January mid-month water supply forecast, April through September runoff at
The Dalles fell to 91% of normal, down from 93% of normal on the previous
report. Nonetheless, the report suggested the Pacific Northwest is still
likely to have much healthier water levels in 2002 than last year. 2001 was
one of the region's driest winters ever, and the January mid-month report
for that year showed April through September flows at The Dalles were only
expected to be 68% of normal. Additionally snow-pillow data for the
Columbia Basin in Canada showed that snowpack levels are holding at
above-normal levels. Current flow forecasts for Chief Joseph were also
holding their ground, coming in at 100 kcfs Friday, 65 kcfs Saturday, 55
kcfs Sunday, and 100 kcfs next Monday through Thursday.

Peak electricity prices fell while off-peak prices stayed steady in the
Golden State on Thursday, mainly on the usual lighter loads for a weekend
package. "More heating demand from the colder weekend weather forecast also
kept light load up, and there was some generation back today, cutting into
heavy load prices" said one California trader. In political news, U.S.
Bankruptcy Court Judge Dennis Montali ruled on Thursday that he would allow
the CPUC to present arguments supporting why they should participate in the
PG&E reorganization process. The CPUC will have until February 13 to
present their case in support of the plan they favor. In San Francisco
Superior Court, the California Attorney General requested that Enron be held
in contempt for not turning over documents in the state's case alleging
price gouging by energy companies during last year's energy crisis. On the
generation front, gas-fired Alamitos #3 (320 MW) returned to service on
Thursday, while sister unit #5 (480 MW) was operating at 290 MW. Northern
hydro Big Creek Project (1,020 MW) was producing at 68% capacity, derated by
330 MW compared to just 50 MW on Wednesday. Finally, Morro Bay #3 (337 MW)
powered up to 185 MW on its way back from a planned maintenance outage that
began January 4. Temperatures were expected to linger below normal through
Monday of the new week. Highs were predicted to reach the 50s at mid-state
and the low-60s at southern load centers, with corresponding lows
anticipated in the 30s and 40s, respectively. The latest six-to-ten called
for continued below-normal conditions from January 23 to 27.

Lower weekend loads helped to depress peak power prices in the Southwest on
Thursday. Heavy load energy costs at Palo Verde fell by as much as
4.5$/MWh, while light load goods rose by an average of 1.25$/MWh. Off-peak
power at PV traded between 17 and 21$/MWh, with most deals going through
from 17 to 19$/MWh. There was little to report in the way of unit news in
the desert region on Thursday. There was some talk of a transformer check
being conducted at Palo Verde #3 (1,270 MW), but output at the nuke was
unaffected. According to Weather Derivatives, heating demand in the
Southwest was forecast to average 113% of normal through January 24, while
the latest six-to-ten from the NWS was calling for below-normal temperatures
in Arizona and normal temperatures in New Mexico from January 23 through 27.

Patrick O'Neill and Jessie Norris
_________________________________________________________

Western Generating Unit Outages

Current Begins Ends Reason
CAISO units <250/6361 total NA NA
planned/unplanned*
Big Creek Project/1020/hydro 17-Jan-02 ? @690 MW,
planned*
Colstrip #3/700/coal 11-Jan-02 20-Jan-02 repairs
Colstrip #4/700/coal 15-Jan-02 20-Jan-02 tube leak
Diablo Canyon #2/1087/nuclear 15-Jan-02 20-Jan-02 @50%,
maintenance
El Segundo #3/337/gas 16-Jan-02 ? unplanned*
Encina #4/303/gas 12-Jan-02 ? unplanned
Four Corners #5 09-Jan-02 14-Mar-02 maintenance
Grand Coulee #19/600/hydro 10-Dec-01 March repairs
Haynes #6/341/gas 07-Jan-02 ? planned
Helms PGP #2/407/hydro 01-Oct-01 ? planned
Hyatt/Thermalito/933/hydro 02-Oct-01 ? @506 MW,
unplanned
Moss Landing #6/739/gas 11-Jan-02 ? unplanned
Moss Landing #7/739/gas 29-Dec-01 ? planned
Naughton #3/330/gas 13-Jan-02 18-Jan-02 tube leak
Ormond Beach #1/725/gas 28-Dec-01 ? planned
Ormond Beach #2/750/gas 05-Oct-01 ? @350 MW,
unplanned
Pittsburg #6/317/gas 22-Nov-01 ? planned
Pittsburg #7/682/gas 16-Jan-02 ? unplanned
Redondo #8/480/gas 09-Dec-01 ? planned

For unit owners refer to pdf version.
*Indicates a change from previous EMR.
______________________________________________________________________

Eastern Markets Pre-Scheduled Firm Power Prices ($/MWh)

January 17, 2002 for January 18, 2002

Peak (Heavy) in $/MWh
Low Change High Change
Into Cinergy 21.30 3.50 22.85 -0.70
Western PJM 22.65 -0.45 23.80 0.20
Into Entergy 19.50 0.50 22.50 0.50
Into TVA 21.00 1.00 22.50 0.25
___________________________________________________________
Despite a slump in natural gas values, cooler forecasts for Friday pushed
peak power prices mostly higher on Thursday across the Eastern Interconnect.
"NYMEX opened lower, promptly taking the wind out of the sails of forwards
trading," said one Midwestern power dealer. NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas
futures softened on Thursday, with the February contract down 14 cents to
close at 2.254$/mmBtu. March lost 10.9 cents to also end at 2.254$/MWh

Peak power prices gained a whopping 20 cents on Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic
due to little change in the weather or generation landscape. Western PJM
goods for Friday delivery changed hands between 22.65 and 23.8$/MWh.
Traders said February edged up about a dime, with deals done around 24.9 to
24.95$/MWh. After the usual early morning surge and a few bumps in the late
morning, LMPs averaged 20.34$/MWh through 16:00 EST. Forecasts for Friday
called for highs in the low-40s and lows near freezing. Little change was
predicted through Monday, and the latest six-to-ten from the NWS called for
above-normal temperatures from January 23 to 27.

Spot electricity prices edged up on Thursday in the Midwest on a day
characterized by high volatility, fluctuating gas values, and uncertainty
about weather forecasts. "There were some big players pushing Cinergy
prices around today, and the near-term tanked, so I'm not too excited about
the perceived strength in the dailies," commented one discouraged trader.
Into Cinergy pieces for Friday delivery were bought and sold between 21.3
and 22.85$/MWh, with prices falling lower as the day progressed. The
February contract opened near 23$/MWh, settled to 22.2$/MWh just before
NYMEX opened, and was trading between 21.25 and 21.4$/MWh by early
afternoon, according to sources. In unit news, LaSalle (1,144 MW) was in
cold shutdown Thursday, and expected to be off-line through mid-February for
a refueling outage. Friday temperatures were expected to be lower, with
highs forecast in the low to mid-30s and lows in the mid-20s. The most
current six-to-ten called for above-normal temperatures from January 23 to
27.

As natural gas values on Thursday lost most of the gains posted on Wednesday
and other fundamentals remained mostly unchanged, heavy load energy costs
stayed steady in the Southeast. Into Entergy goods traded between 19.5 and
22.5$/MWh, with the bulk of deals heard from 20.5 to 21.25$/MWh. Traders
said February deals were going through at around 20$/MWh. Into TVA
day-ahead pieces saw action from 21 to 22.5$/MWh. The mercury was expected
to slip about four degrees on Friday in SERC, with high temperatures
settling in the low-50s. The forecast looked steady there through Monday,
and the latest six-to-ten predicted above-normal temperatures from January
23 to 27.
___________________________________________________________

California ISO Congestion Index in $/MWh

Path Peak Off-peak
for 18-Jan-02 NW1 to NP15 0.00 0.00
NW3 to SP15 0.00 0.00
AZ3 to SP15 0.00 0.00
LC1 to SP15 0.00 0.00
SP15 to NP15 0.00 0.00

OTC Forward Peak Electricity Contracts in $/MWh

Mid-C PV SP-15
Bid Ask Bid Ask Bid Ask
BOM 19.00 20.00 24.00 25.00 24.25 25.25
February 19.00 20.50 23.00 24.00 24.25 25.25
March 17.00 18.50 22.75 23.75 23.50 24.50
April 17.50 19.00 23.50 24.50 NA NA
Q2 '02 17.25 18.75 25.50 26.50 25.50 26.50
Q3 '02 30.75 32.25 39.25 40.25 38.25 39.25
Q4 '02 26.50 28.00 26.50 27.50 28.25 29.25
Q1 '03 26.50 28.00 NA NA NA NA
Cal '03 27.50 29.00 30.75 31.75 32.25 33.25

Represents the most recent bid/ask spread obtainable
by the Energy Market Report.

Alberta Power Pool Index (C$/MWh)

Peak(14) Peak(16) Off-Peak Flat Change
for 16-Jan-02 32.05 31.49 13.28 26.01 -10.94

BPA's Offer for 01/21/02 and 01/22/02.

Hours Amount NW delivered COB/NOB delivered
7-22 200MW Market Price* Market Price*
1-6, 23-24 200MW Market Price* Market Price*

*Market price will be determined at time of request.

NYMEX Henry Hub Gas Futures in $/mmBtu

Close Change
Feb 2.254 -0.140
Mar 2.254 -0.109

Natural Gas Spot Prices in $/mmBtu

Low High
Sumas 2.17 2.22
So. Cal Border 2.32 2.37
San Juan 2.18 2.23
__________________________________________________________

Economic Insight, Inc. - 3004 SW First, Portland, Oregon 97201,
Telephone (503) 222-2425, Internet e-mail emr@econ.com -
Copyright, Economic Insight, Inc. 2002.