FW: Energy Market Report

Energy Market Report
Thursday, December 20, 2001

*See attached pdf file.
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Western Pre-Scheduled Firm Electricity Prices($/MWh)
December 20, 2001 for December 23, 2001

Peak(Heavy)
Low Change** High Change**
NW/N. Rockies* 17.00 NA 18.00 NA
Mid-Columbia* 17.00 NA 18.00 NA
COB* 16.00 NA 18.50 NA
N. California* 16.00 NA 20.00 NA
Midway/Sylmar* NA NA NA NA
S. California* 13.50 NA 17.00 NA
Mead* 14.75 NA 15.75 NA
Palo Verde* 14.00 NA 16.00 NA
Inland SW* 14.00 NA 16.00 NA
4-Corners* 14.00 NA 16.00 NA
Central Rockies* 13.00 NA 14.50 NA
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Off-Peak(Light)
Low Change** High Change**
NW/N. Rockies* 17.00 NA 18.00 NA
Mid-Columbia* 17.00 NA 18.00 NA
COB* 16.00 NA 18.50 NA
N. California* 16.00 NA 20.00 NA
Midway/Sylmar* NA NA NA NA
S. California* 13.50 NA 17.00 NA
Mead* 14.75 NA 15.75 NA
Palo Verde* 14.00 NA 16.00 NA
Inland SW* 14.00 NA 16.00 NA
4-Corners* 14.00 NA 16.00 NA
Central Rockies* 13.00 NA 14.50 NA

*Denotes trading of flat, 24-hour products.
**"NA" changes are not applicable because prices for on and off peak goods
are not comparable to flat products.
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Western Pre-Scheduled Firm Electricity Prices($/MWh)
December 20, 2001 for December 24, 2001

Peak(Heavy)
Low Change** High Change**
NW/N. Rockies 19.00 NA 21.00 NA
Mid-Columbia 19.00 NA 21.00 NA
COB 21.00 NA 23.50 NA
N. California 23.50 NA 27.00 NA
Midway/Sylmar NA NA NA NA
S. California 22.25 NA 26.00 NA
Mead 21.00 NA 24.00 NA
Palo Verde 22.25 NA 25.00 NA
Inland SW 21.00 NA 25.00 NA
4-Corners 21.50 NA 22.50 NA
Central Rockies 21.00 NA 22.00 NA
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Off-Peak(Light)
Low Change** High Change**
NW/N. Rockies 17.00 NA 18.00 NA
Mid-Columbia 17.00 NA 18.00 NA
COB 16.00 NA 18.50 NA
N. California 16.00 NA 20.00 NA
Midway/Sylmar NA NA NA NA
S. California 13.50 NA 17.00 NA
Mead 14.75 NA 15.75 NA
Palo Verde 14.00 NA 16.00 NA
Inland SW 14.00 NA 16.00 NA
4-Corners 14.00 NA 16.00 NA
Central Rockies 13.00 NA 14.50 NA

**"NA" changes are not applicable because prices for on and off peak goods
are not comparable to flat products.
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Dreaming of a Wet Christmas

As reduced holiday demand prepared to firmly grip the U.S., peak power
prices for delivery on Sunday and Christmas Eve fell sharply throughout the
West on Thursday. The most notable declines were seen in the southern half
of the WSCC as temperatures remained at or just above normal levels, while
much of the Northwest and Northern California combated increasing heating
demand. "Lower spot gas prices may have played a role in softening the
dailies, but holiday loads are the main market-moving force," admitted one
trader. NYMEX Henry Hub futures contracts rose Thursday on forecasts
calling for end-of-the-month cold in the Midwest and Northeast, though most
players believed that weak holiday demand would limit the upside in the near
term. January Hub gas, which expires next Thursday, rose 7 cents to close
at 2.686$/mmBtu, and February gained 5.8 cents to end at 2.708$/mmBtu. "The
forecasted cold for the eastern half of the U.S. may well have pushed Henry
Hub prices much higher had it not been for the glut of gas currently in
storage," said one gas watcher. Over the past several weeks, the Western
U.S. has led the nation in inventory withdrawls, largely due to colder
weather in the region relative to the rest of the nation. Several sources
indicated that the "strong Western draws" were due in part to a large number
of unit outages, especially at coal-fired plants, which increased the demand
for natural gas. The recent return of more than 1,000 MW of coal-fired
generation, however, will likely reduce demand for natural gas going
forward. Natural gas demand will likely be reduced further by the recent
precipitation. Not only does the heavy precipitation lend to stronger hydro
generation now, but higher snow-pack will likely boost hydro output when the
spring runoff takes place. "All these factors lead me to believe that the
demand for gas-fired generation in the West will remain weak well into
2002," said one market analyst.

Heavy load energy costs for Christmas Eve delivery fell by an average of
3.25$/MWh in the Northwest on Thursday, but the decline was limited by
colder temperatures across much of the region. Peak power at the
Mid-Columbia traded in a relatively narrow range from 19 to 21$/MWh, while
light load goods for the all-day Sunday/off-peak Christmas Eve package were
seen in an even tighter range between 17 and 18$/MWh. "I'm not sure why
they treated Christmas Eve as a peak power day. I don't know anyone who
will be working on Monday," said one baffled trader. Flow forecasts for
Chief Joseph remained strong amid recent heavy precipitation, coming in at
95 kcfs Friday, 75 kcfs Saturday, 60 kcfs Sunday, 75 kcfs Christmas Eve, 60
kcfs Christmas Day, and 90 kcfs next Wednesday and Thursday. Recent heavy
rains have all but quashed a year-long drought in the region. With the
shortest day of the year upon us, Portland, Oregon was enjoying its 32nd day
of continuous rain. That leaves only three more days of Mother Nature's
revenge to break the record of 34 days. Precipitation since October 1 has
ranged from 124 to 143% of normal in the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada
Mountains. Canadian precipitation is back on track too, with snow-pack
levels in the Columbia River drainage at or above normal. Last year's
drought, frigid weather, and market panic are merely distant memories.

Peak power prices for the Sunday-Monday package weakened across the Golden
State on Thursday in what marketers described as a "cold, wet, uneventful
trading day." The all-day Sunday/off-peak Monday piece lost ground at every
California hub, with SP-15 the biggest mover. "There's just no demand over
the holidays, especially with this mild weather," lamented one overstocked
seller. Above-normal precipitation and temperatures in the low 50s to
mid-60s were the most-oft cited targets for blame, according to market
players. The five-day forecast called for temperatures in the western
portions of California to be near or slightly below normal, while the
eastern portions were expected to be slightly above normal. Rain was
predicted for the coastal and lowland regions, with snow called for in the
mountains. The latest six-to-ten suggested that temperatures would fall
below normal from December 26 to 30. In unit news, gas-burner Los Medanos
(550 MW) had already powered up to 530 MW following an unplanned outage, and
Contra Costa #7 (337 MW) was ramping down for a planned maintenance outage.
It had powered down to 45 MW as of the CAISO's 11:15 report.

Relatively mild weather and meek holiday demand prompted spot electricity
prices in the Southwest to make the sharpest declines in the West on
Thursday. Peak power for Christmas Eve fell by as much as a whopping
6.5$/MWh at Palo Verde, with confirmed trades heard anywhere between 22.25
and 25$/MWh. A very late trade reported at 29.25$/MWh was no more than an
anomaly. Light load goods at the Southwest hub traded narrowly between 14
and 16$/MWh. In unit news, Mohave #1 (739 MW) was still scheduled to return
from the dead at 22:00 MST Thursday, but even unit participants were taking
a wait-and-see attitude. Further to the north, Utah-based Hunter #2 (472
MW) had its return pushed back until at least Christmas Day. Weather
forecasts called for temperatures in Phoenix to hover within a few degrees
of normal through the long holiday weekend, while the latest six-to-ten from
the NWS was predicting a mix of normal and below-normal conditions across
the desert region from December 26 through 30.

Patrick O'Neill and Jessie Norris
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Western Generating Unit Outages

Current Begins Ends Reason
CAISO units <250/5824 total NA NA
planned/unplanned*
Alamitos #3/320/gas 04-Dec-01 ? planned
Big Creek Project/1020/hydro 09-Dec-01 ? @752MW,
planned
Contra Costa #7/337/gas 20-Dec-01 ? @ 45MW,
planned*
El Segundo #3/337/gas 02-Oct-01 ? unplanned
Encina #5/332/gas 27-Oct-01 ? planned
Grand Coulee #19/600/hydro 10-Dec-01 March repairs
Helms PGP #2/407/hydro 01-Oct-01 ? planned
Hunter #2/472/coal 11-Dec-01 25-Dec-01 unknown*
Hyatt/Thermalito/933/hydro 02-Oct-01 ? @607 MW,
unplanned
Mohave #1/790/coal 15-Dec-01 20-Dec-01 tube leak
Moss Landing #6/739/gas 19-Dec-01 ? unplanned
Ormond Beach #2/750/gas 05-Oct-01 ? @350 MW,
unplanned
Pittsburg #6/317/gas 22-Nov-01 ? planned
Sutter Plants/546/gas 04-Dec-01 ? planned

For unit owners refer to pdf version.
*Indicates a change from previous EMR.
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Eastern Markets Pre-Scheduled Firm Power Prices ($/MWh)

December 20, 2001 for December 21, 2001

Peak (Heavy) in $/MWh
Low Change High Change
Into Cinergy 20.75 0.75 21.75 -0.65
Western PJM 24.25 -0.65 24.50 -0.65
Into Entergy 22.00 1.50 23.25 1.25
Into TVA 21.00 0.75 22.00 0.50
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Amid light pre-holiday trading and higher natural gas prices, day-ahead
electricity prices were mixed across the Eastern Interconnect on Thursday.
With many traders already off for the holiday and light loads expected to
continue through the end of the year, volume was particularly thin and
prices were seen in tight ranges. "There's a piece trading here and there,
but for the most part business is done until January," said one PJM trader.
NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures climbed on Thursday, with the January
contract gaining 7 cents to close 2.686$/mmBtu and the February contract
following suit with a 5.8 cent gain to close at 2.708$/mmBtu.

Despite less generation on-line than a day ago, peak power prices settled
lower on Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic. "Some plants are off to give
everyone a holiday break, which is possible because the weather's not
expected to do much," said one ready-to-leave PJM player. Western PJM
heavy-load goods traded between 24.25 and 24.5$/MWh, slipping 65 cents at
both ends. Light load deals for Friday delivery were heard from 16.75 to
17$/MWh. LMPs spiked to an unusually hefty 100$/MWh briefly at 08:00 and
again just before 09:00 EST, before settling back near the day's average of
23.06$/MWh through 14:00 EST. Forecasts in the Mid-Atlantic called for
temperatures to linger within 5 degrees of seasonal levels. Friday highs
were expected in the 41 to 48 degree range, with overnight lows just below
freezing. Low temperatures were predicted to warm into the low-40s by
Christmas Eve. The latest six-to-ten from the NWS called for near to
below-normal temperatures from December 26 to 30.

In sparse dealing, heavy load electricity prices in the Midwest fell off a
bit on Thursday, as weather, loads, and the attitudes of those still stuck
at work on Friday were expected to be bearish. Into Cinergy goods changed
hands between 20.75 and 21.75$/MWh, gaining 75 cents on the low end and
losing almost the same off the high to settle into a dollar spread. No new
unit information was available on Thursday. High temperatures were expected
mostly in the 40s through Sunday, while cooling into the mid-30s was
predicted for Christmas Eve, boosting the hopes of those still dreaming of a
white Christmas. The most current six-to-ten-day forecast called for near
to below-normal temperatures from December 26 to 30.

Peak power prices strengthened in the Southeast on Thursday for the third
day in a row, as colder weather forecasts and higher natural gas prices
rallied the dailies. Into Entergy deals were done between 22 and
23.25$/MWh, with the bulk of transactions near 22.75$/MWh. Into TVA trading
was much lighter, with pieces being bought and sold between 21 and 22$/MWh.
Although no official word was heard, traders thought Catawba #2 (1,129 MW)
remained down. High temperatures were expected to range from 47 to 57
degrees through Christmas Eve, with overnight lows in the mid-30s to
low-40s. The latest six-to-ten called for near to below-normal temperatures
from December 26 to 30.
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California ISO Congestion Index in $/MWh

Path Peak Off-peak
for 21-Dec-01 NW1 to NP15 0.00 0.00
NW3 to SP15 0.00 0.00
AZ3 to SP15 0.00 0.00
LC1 to SP15 0.00 0.00
SP15 to NP15 0.00 0.00

OTC Forward Peak Electricity Contracts in $/MWh

Mid-C PV SP-15
Bid Ask Bid Ask Bid Ask
BOM 21.50 23.50 23.00 25.50 25.75 27.75
January 24.50 26.00 27.00 28.00 29.00 30.00
February 21.50 23.00 25.00 26.00 26.50 27.50
March 18.00 19.50 25.00 26.00 26.00 27.00
Q1 '02 21.25 22.75 26.00 27.00 28.00 29.00
Q2 '02 16.50 18.00 28.00 29.00 28.00 29.00
Q3 '02 32.75 34.25 44.75 45.75 42.00 43.00
Q4 '02 27.50 29.00 29.00 30.00 31.00 32.00
Cal '03 30.00 31.50 33.50 34.50 34.50 35.50
Represents the most recent bid/ask spread obtainable
by the Energy Market Report.

Alberta Power Pool Index (C$/MWh)

Peak(14) Peak(16) Off-Peak Flat Change
for 19-Dec-01 46.32 46.27 36.69 43.38 3.35

BPA's Offer for 12/2401.

Hours Amount NW delivered COB/NOB delivered

7-22 100MW Market Price* Market Price*

*Market price will be determined at time of request.

NYMEX Henry Hub Gas Futures in $/mmBtu

Close Change
Jan 2.686 0.070
Feb 2.708 0.058

Natural Gas Spot Prices in $/mmBtu

Low High
Sumas 2.45 2.50
So. Cal Border 2.51 2.56
San Juan 2.35 2.40
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Economic Insight, Inc. - 3004 SW First, Portland, Oregon 97201,
Telephone (503) 222-2425, Internet e-mail emr@econ.com -
Copyright, Economic Insight, Inc. 2001.