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Enron Mail |
Energy Market Report Friday, December 21, 2001 *See attached pdf file. __________________________________________________________ Western Pre-Scheduled Firm Electricity Prices($/MWh) December 21, 2001 for December 25, 2001 Peak(Heavy) Low Change** High Change** NW/N. Rockies* 17.00 NA 18.00 NA Mid-Columbia* 17.00 NA 18.00 NA COB* 15.50 NA 16.25 NA N. California* 15.00 NA 18.50 NA Midway/Sylmar* NA NA NA NA S. California* 14.00 NA 17.00 NA Mead* 14.25 NA 15.00 NA Palo Verde* 13.25 NA 14.75 NA Inland SW* 13.25 NA 15.00 NA 4-Corners* 13.50 NA 14.50 NA Central Rockies* 13.00 NA 14.00 NA __________________________________________________________ Off-Peak(Light) Low Change** High Change** NW/N. Rockies* 17.00 NA 18.00 NA Mid-Columbia* 17.00 NA 18.00 NA COB* 15.50 NA 16.25 NA N. California* 15.00 NA 18.50 NA Midway/Sylmar* NA NA NA NA S. California* 14.00 NA 17.00 NA Mead* 14.25 NA 15.00 NA Palo Verde* 13.25 NA 14.75 NA Inland SW* 13.25 NA 15.00 NA 4-Corners* 13.50 NA 14.50 NA Central Rockies* 13.00 NA 14.00 NA *Denotes trading of flat, 24-hour products. **"NA" changes are not applicable because prices for on and off peak goods are not comparable to flat products. __________________________________________________________ Western Pre-Scheduled Firm Electricity Prices($/MWh) December 21, 2001 for December 26, 2001 Peak(Heavy) Low Change** High Change** NW/N. Rockies 19.25 NA 21.00 NA Mid-Columbia 19.25 NA 21.00 NA COB 21.00 NA 23.00 NA N. California 24.00 NA 23.50 NA Midway/Sylmar NA NA NA NA S. California 22.00 NA 25.25 NA Mead 21.00 NA 23.50 NA Palo Verde 21.50 NA 23.75 NA Inland SW 21.00 NA 23.75 NA 4-Corners 21.50 NA 23.00 NA Central Rockies 19.50 NA 21.25 NA __________________________________________________________ Off-Peak(Light) Low Change** High Change** NW/N. Rockies 17.00 NA 18.00 NA Mid-Columbia 17.00 NA 18.00 NA COB 15.50 NA 16.25 NA N. California 15.00 NA 18.50 NA Midway/Sylmar NA NA NA NA S. California 14.00 NA 17.00 NA Mead 14.25 NA 15.00 NA Palo Verde 13.25 NA 14.75 NA Inland SW 13.25 NA 15.00 NA 4-Corners 13.50 NA 14.50 NA Central Rockies 13.00 NA 14.00 NA **"NA" changes are not applicable because prices for on and off peak goods are not comparable to flat products. __________________________________________________________ There will be no Energy Market Report Published on Monday, December 24 or Tuesday, December 25, 2001 due to the Christmas Holiday. The EMR will begin publishing again on Wednesday, December 26, 2001. __________________________________________________________ Four Days Before Christmas 'Twas 4 days before Christmas, and all thru the West Few traders were working, 10 percent at best; Marketers had tallied their books up with care, In hopes that year-end bonuses soon would be there. Enron was nestled down deep in the red, Battling lawsuits from many, and claims by the Fed; With Osama on the run, and Jeff Skilling in Brazil, There are not many wishes left to fulfill. Stockings were hung by the boilers with care, But lumps of coal showed that Enron passed there; All rejoice and thanks to Ken Lay, Even Santa frets 'bout his 401k. With hydro abundant, and gas storage so high, It looked as though the West would not bat an eye; The shorts in the market sang a chorus of cheer, "Prices are a shadow of what they were last year." Another calendar gone by, and what a doozy it was, So close up your shops, catch a well-deserved buzz; A sincere wish for all, we hope you made a buck, Happy Holidays to all, and to all Good Luck! But seriously folks?Western peak power prices for the Christmas Day/Wednesday package were mostly flat to levels seen for the Sunday/Monday combo. "It's supposed to get a little bit colder out there over the long weekend, but the combination of weak holiday demand and abundant hydro generation has given traders little cause for concern," explained one marketer. Spot gas prices on most Western pipelines were flat to slightly higher than levels seen on the previous day, while NYMEX Henry Hub futures contracts rose sharply on some colder forecasts for the eastern U.S. and a flurry of short covering ahead of the long weekend. January Hub gas rose an impressive 20.9 cents to close at 2.895$/mmBtu, while February gained 18.1 cents to settle at 2.889$/mmBtu. With end-of-the-year loads firmly in place, most players expected little in the way of price movement over the next week. Electricity prices in the Northwest were virtually unchanged for the Tuesday/Wednesday package, compliments of steady holiday loads and abundant regional hydropower. Peak power at the Mid-Columbia changed hands from 19.25 to 21$/MWh, with the bulk of trades taking place between 19.5 and 20.5$/MWh. Flow forecasts for Chief Joseph were off slightly from the previous day, likely in anticipation of waning holiday demand. Flows were predicted to be 75 kcfs Saturday, 55 kcfs Sunday, 70 kcfs Christmas Eve, 50 kcfs Christmas Day, and 85 kcfs Wednesday through Friday. The latest six-to-ten from the NWS was calling for mostly normal temperatures through the end of the month. Peak power prices in California for Wednesday delivery ended slightly weaker than the Sunday-Monday package. In the news, a report by the Bureau of State Audits, released Thursday, criticized the California Department of Water Resources for a lack of analysis of power demand in the state before it signed 57 contracts for long-term power with energy companies. The urgency generated by pressure from the Davis administration to sign long-term agreements precluded the planning necessary for projects of such large-scale, according to the report, and resulted in the omission of important details which would have better shielded California in the event of failure by the supplier to deliver the power, or in times of excess demand. The contracts were negotiated in a matter of weeks rather than the usual months, and tied Californians into paying more than double the current spot prices for electricity for the next decade. Oscar Hidalgo, spokesman for the team of buyers at the DWR, defended the DWR's performance, saying "The lights are on; the costs are way down; stability is back in the market. The long-term contracts are a big part of it." However, the Bureau's report noted that the state likely bought too much electricity, and as a result will have to sell much of its power during times of low demand at a loss on the spot market. This alone could cost consumers as much as $4 billion over the next decade. At the same time, the contracts do not include many commitments from "peaker" (intermittent load-contingent) plants, which would make the state once again vulnerable to price spikes at times of peak demand. In unit news, gas-fired Contra Costa #7 (337 MW) slipped back onto the grid after a one-day maintenance outage. Encina #5 (332 MW) also began ramping up on Friday, and was at 250 MW by 11:15 PST. Temperatures were slightly below normal but above freezing, and expected to remain that way through Christmas. The latest six-to-ten called for some cooling from December 27 to 31. Peak prices in the Southwest were little changed for the Tuesday/Wednesday package, while light load goods fell modestly, by less than 1$/MWh in most cases. "We anticipate little change in prices or demand through January 1," said one Southwest utility trader. In unit news, Mohave #1 (790 MW) remained off-line Friday with no ETR available. The unit was reportedly suffering from exciter problems, but details were vague. Weather forecasts called for temperatures to dip to slightly below normal over the weekend in Phoenix, while the latest six-to-ten from the NWS was predicting below-normal temperatures for the entire desert region for the last week in December. Patrick O'Neill and David Ramberg _________________________________________________________ Western Generating Unit Outages Current Begins Ends Reason CAISO units <250/5817 total NA NA planned/unplanned* Alamitos #3/320/gas 04-Dec-01 ? planned Big Creek Project/1020/hydro 09-Dec-01 ? @714MW, planned* El Segundo #3/337/gas 02-Oct-01 ? unplanned Grand Coulee #19/600/hydro 10-Dec-01 March repairs Helms PGP #2/407/hydro 01-Oct-01 ? planned Hunter #2/472/coal 11-Dec-01 25-Dec-01 unknown Hyatt/Thermalito/933/hydro 02-Oct-01 ? @607 MW, unplanned Mohave #1/790/coal 15-Dec-01 ? tube leak* Moss Landing #6/739/gas 19-Dec-01 ? unplanned Ormond Beach #2/750/gas 05-Oct-01 ? @350 MW, unplanned Pittsburg #6/317/gas 22-Nov-01 ? planned Sutter Plants/546/gas 04-Dec-01 ? planned For unit owners refer to pdf version. *Indicates a change from previous EMR. ______________________________________________________________________ Eastern Markets Pre-Scheduled Firm Power Prices ($/MWh) December 21, 2001 for December 26, 2001 Peak (Heavy) in $/MWh Low Change High Change Into Cinergy 22.00 1.25 25.00 3.25 Western PJM 24.50 0.25 25.25 0.75 Into Entergy 22.00 0.00 24.00 0.75 Into TVA 22.00 1.00 22.50 0.50 ___________________________________________________________ Faced with apathetic holiday demand, prices across the Eastern Interconnect plummeted for Monday delivery. "Without schools, businesses, or even myself in operation on Monday, almost nothing moved today," admitted one trader of his intention to avoid the energy market on Christmas Eve. Most traders were putting together their Wednesday packages on Friday, in order to extend their weekends through the Christmas holiday. "Wednesday prices showed strength over Friday packages, presumably on the uncertainty of trading so far out and forecasts calling for cooler weather over the next week," opined one PJM player. NYMEX Henry Hub forward contracts showed renewed vigor on colder late-month forecasts and heavy short covering. The January contract gained 20.9 cents to close at 2.895$/mmBtu, while the February contract rose 18.1 cents to end the day at 2.889$/mmBtu. Not even the Mid-Atlantic bucked the trend on Friday. Marketers were restless and eager to either cover their meager loads or divest themselves of their excess energy and then head home for the holidays. There was not a lot of volatility in the LMPs, which briefly spiked to 56.4$/MWh just after 07:00 EST, but swiftly fell into the near-average groove of 21.61$/MWh through 15:00 EST. Monday prices hovered in a narrow range between 21 and 21.5$/MWh, while Wednesday pieces went at a premium even to Friday goods, trading from 24.5 to 25.25$/MWh. Nary an outage was reported in all of PJM, which some marketers cited as yet another reason for the lackadaisical nature of Friday's energy market. Temperatures were predicted by Weather Services Corp. to warm into above-normal territory by Christmas Day, while the latest six-to-ten called for temperatures from near to below-normal between December 27 and 31. Prices across the Midwest slid by 4 to 6$/MWh for Monday delivery during Friday's trading. Most marketers reported making only one or two trades, as above-normal temperatures precluded healthy heating demand and the almost universal closures of businesses and schools "took the spirit out of the market," as one trader put it. Monday Into Cinergy goods changed hands between 14 and 18$/MWh, while Wednesday pieces sold for anywhere from 22 to 25$/MWh, a premium to prices seen for Friday. "There's some uncertainty involved with trading five days out, and besides, it's supposed to get colder," remarked one ECAR player. No new unit outages were reported in ECAR, though Palisades #1 (789 MW) remained in cold shutdown, as it has been since the end of June 2001. Temperatures lingered between the mid 20s and the high 30s on Friday, but were expected to warm into the high 40s by the end of the weekend, further shaving off heating demand for Monday. The latest six-to-ten predicted temperatures to be near to below normal from December 27 to 31. SERC traders were scrambling to move what they could before everyone else stampeded from their offices for the Christmas holiday, and few had any trades to report. "With the Enron debacle, I think most of us are sitting out the action until the end of the year," remarked one TVA player. Monday Into TVA pieces took a nosedive on Friday, trading between 15.75 and 17.5$/MWh - and the high end was almost an anomaly, according to the price data of many marketers. Into Entergy likewise tanked, moving for anywhere from 17 to 21$/MWh. Wednesday showed more strength, with Into TVA trading at a slight premium to Friday's goods, from 22 to 22.5$/MWh, and Into Entergy pieces trading from 22 to 24$/MWh. Temperatures were not expected to ratchet up heating demand over the next five days, for despite below-normal temperatures across much of the region, daytime highs were predicted to reach the upper 50s. The latest six-to-ten called for temperatures to fall to below normal levels from December 27 to 31. ___________________________________________________________ California ISO Congestion Index in $/MWh Path Peak Off-peak for 22-Dec-01 NW1 to NP15 0.00 0.00 NW3 to SP15 0.00 0.00 AZ3 to SP15 0.00 0.00 LC1 to SP15 0.00 0.00 SP15 to NP15 0.00 0.00 OTC Forward Peak Electricity Contracts in $/MWh Mid-C PV SP-15 Bid Ask Bid Ask Bid Ask BOM 20.00 22.50 24.00 25.50 25.50 27.50 January 25.00 26.50 28.00 29.00 29.00 30.00 February 22.00 23.50 25.50 26.50 27.00 28.00 March 18.50 20.00 25.50 26.50 26.50 27.50 Q1 '02 21.25 22.75 26.50 27.50 28.50 29.50 Q2 '02 16.50 18.00 28.50 29.50 28.75 29.75 Q3 '02 33.00 35.50 45.00 46.00 42.50 43.50 Q4 '02 28.00 29.50 29.50 30.50 31.50 32.50 Cal '03 30.50 32.00 34.00 35.00 35.00 36.00 Represents the most recent bid/ask spread obtainable by the Energy Market Report. Alberta Power Pool Index (C$/MWh) Peak(14) Peak(16) Off-Peak Flat Change for 20-Dec-01 90.39 85.08 34.09 69.71 26.33 BPA's Offer for 12/27/01 through 12/29/01. Hours Amount NW delivered COB/NOB delivered 7-22 100MW Market Price* Market Price* *Market price will be determined at time of request. NYMEX Henry Hub Gas Futures in $/mmBtu Close Change Jan 2.895 0.209 Feb 2.889 0.181 Natural Gas Spot Prices in $/mmBtu Low High Sumas 2.45 2.50 So. Cal Border 2.55 2.60 San Juan 2.40 2.45 __________________________________________________________ Economic Insight, Inc. - 3004 SW First, Portland, Oregon 97201, Telephone (503) 222-2425, Internet e-mail emr@econ.com - Copyright, Economic Insight, Inc. 2001.
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