FW: Energy Market Report

Energy Market Report
Thursday, January 10, 2002

*See attached pdf file.
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Western Pre-Scheduled Firm Electricity Prices($/MWh)
January 10, 2002 for January 11 and 12, 2002

Peak(Heavy)
Low Change High Change
NW/N. Rockies 16.50 -1.50 17.50 -1.75
Mid-Columbia 16.50 -1.50 17.50 -1.75
COB 17.50 -2.00 18.25 -2.25
N. California 18.25 -2.25 20.00 -2.50
Midway/Sylmar NA NA NA NA
S. California 18.00 -2.50 20.25 -2.50
Mead 18.75 -0.50 20.00 -1.50
Palo Verde 17.00 -2.00 19.75 -1.75
Inland SW 17.00 -2.00 20.25 -1.50
4-Corners 17.75 -1.25 18.75 -1.75
Central Rockies 16.75 -1.00 18.00 -2.50
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Off-Peak(Light)
Low Change High Change
NW/N. Rockies 13.50 -1.00 14.75 -1.00
Mid-Columbia 13.50 -1.00 14.75 -1.00
COB 13.25 -1.25 14.50 -1.50
N. California 14.50 -0.50 15.00 -2.00
Midway/Sylmar NA NA NA NA
S. California 14.00 -1.00 15.25 -2.25
Mead 14.00 0.00 14.25 -1.50
Palo Verde 12.75 0.25 14.50 -0.50
Inland SW 12.50 0.00 14.50 -1.25
4-Corners 12.25 -0.75 13.00 -1.25
Central Rockies 11.50 -2.25 12.50 -3.00
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Gas Pains

With the latest weather forecasts revising temperatures upward from the
Arctic blast predicted on Tuesday and hydropower in the Northwest remaining
strong, peak power prices for Friday and Saturday delivery generally fell
modestly across the WSCC. "There's simply no strength in the market right
now, with flows and generation as strong as they are, temperatures so high
and gas prices so low," explained one hair-pulling marketer. Meanwhile,
market pundits across the region were on the edges of their seats awaiting
news from Weil, Gotshal & Manges on who cast the winning bid for Enron's
energy trading business, once considered the jewel in the ex-giant's crown.
However, the announcement had not been made as of this writing. The law
firm was scheduled to announce the winning bid on Thursday from their New
York offices. In gas news, NYMEX Henry Hub futures lost ground for the
second day in a row despite the AGA's bullish natural gas inventory report
released Wednesday. The front month contract lost 4.3 cents to close at
2.185$/mmBtu, while the March contract fell 3.7 cents to close at
2.195$/mmBtu. Both contracts were trading higher early, but came down in
late trading under a rash of short selling. "Everyone's trying to keep
their positions very short on this one, with all the uncertainty around,"
explained one analyst. "Prices could fall to as low as 2$/mmBtu before
long."

Heavy load power at Mid-Columbia was the cheapest in the West on Thursday,
with deals ranging from 16.5 to 17.5$/MWh, a loss of 1.75$/MWh on the high
end. "Now that the brunt of the cold front is going to miss us, the bottom
is falling out of the market again," ventured one stoic player. The
five-day forecast called for temperatures to remain above normal through
Saturday, followed by cooling to near-normal temperatures through January
14. The latest six-to-ten called for cooling to below normal temperatures
from January 16 to 20. Flows at Chief Joseph remained healthy, and were
even revised slightly upward for the coming week on forecasts of rain and
snow showers, with Friday coming in at 65 kcfs, Saturday at 60 kcfs, Sunday
at 50 kcfs, Monday coming up to 95 kcfs, and 90 kcfs through next Thursday.
There were no new unit outages to report on with certainty on Thursday, but
there were murmurings in the Northwest that Colstrip #3 (686 MW) had joined
its sister unit #4 (700 MW) off-line. No confirmation was available.

As weather forecasts continued to call for near-normal temperatures through
Monday and spot gas prices at the Socal border stayed steady, power prices
for the Friday/Saturday package softened in the Golden State on Thursday.
Peak power at SP15 traded between 18 and 20.25$/MWh, with the bulk of deals
done in the 19s, while the off-peak product changed hands from 14 to 15.25.
In political news, California's Attorney General filed a civil suit against
PG&E Corp on Thursday, seeking $600 million to $4 billion in damages. The
state alleged PG&E Corp. received substantial, unwarranted cash flows over
the past 4 years from its subsidiary PG&E, and finally did nothing to
prevent the utility from falling into bankruptcy last year. For their part,
PG&E Corp said CPUC auditors had thoroughly reviewed their transactions with
their subsidiary and found nothing fraudulent. On the generation front,
Moss Landing #6 (739 MW) was almost at full power on Thursday, operating at
690 MW. Etiwanda #4 (320 MW) exited the grid for planned maintenance.
Friday forecasts called for high temperatures to the reach the mid-50s in
Sacramento, the low-60s in the Bay area, and the low-70s at southern load
centers. Little change was seen in the forecast through Monday of the new
week. The most current six-to-ten predicted below-normal temperatures from
January 16 to 20.

The Southwest, locked in the grips of a heat wave pushing temperatures into
the 70s in Phoenix, posted moderate decreases in peak power prices for the
Friday-Saturday package. Goods at Palo Verde changed hands from 17 to
19.75$/MWh, a loss of 1.75$/MWh on the high end. Many marketers reported
very light trading at other hubs in the region, such as Four Corners and
Mona. The five-day forecast put temperatures in above-normal territory
through January 14 in the desert region, with some cooling outside of the
desert on Monday. The latest six-to-ten predicted continuing near- to
slightly below-normal temperatures from January 16 through 20. In unit
news, coal juggernaut Four Corners #5 (750 MW), which was scheduled for a
maintenance outage on January 15, tripped off-line late Wednesday with a
condenser tube leak. Plant operators decided that no attempt would be made
to repair the leak and place the unit back on-line before the scheduled
maintenance, so the ETR will be near March 14, 2002. Fellow coal-smoker
Coronado #1 (365 MW) missed its January 9 ETR yesterday. The new estimated
date of return is sometime in the evening on January 11.

David Ramberg and Jessie Norris
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Western Generating Unit Outages

Current Begins Ends Reason
CAISO units <250/6441 total NA NA
planned/unplanned*
Alamitos #3/320/gas 04-Dec-01 ? planned
Alamitos #4/320/gas 04-Jan-02 ? planned
Colstrip #4/700/coal 09-Jan-02 ? unplanned
Coronado #1/365/coal 22-Dec-01 11-Jan-02 main
transformer*
Etiwanda #3/320/gas 22-Dec-01 ? planned
Etiwanda #4/320/gas 10-Jan-02 ? @20 MW, planned*
Four Corners #4 09-Jan-02 14-Mar-02 condenser tube
leak*
Grand Coulee #19/600/hydro 10-Dec-01 March repairs
Haynes #6/341/gas 07-Jan-02 ? planned
Helms PGP #2/407/hydro 01-Oct-01 ? planned
Hyatt/Thermalito/933/hydro 02-Oct-01 ? @607 MW,
unplanned
Morro Bay #3/337/gas 04-Jan-02 ? planned
Moss Landing #7/739/gas 29-Dec-01 ? planned
Ormond Beach #1/725/gas 28-Dec-01 ? planned
Ormond Beach #2/750/gas 05-Oct-01 ? @350 MW,
unplanned
Pittsburg #6/317/gas 22-Nov-01 ? planned
Pittsburg #7/682/gas 03-Jan-02 ? unplanned
Redondo #8/480/gas 09-Dec-01 ? planned

For unit owners refer to pdf version.
*Indicates a change from previous EMR.
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Eastern Markets Pre-Scheduled Firm Power Prices ($/MWh)

January 10, 2002 for January 11, 2002

Peak (Heavy) in $/MWh
Low Change High Change
Into Cinergy 15.75 -2.75 19.75 -0.75
Western PJM 22.75 0.25 23.05 -0.45
Into Entergy 15.00 -4.00 19.00 -4.00
Into TVA 16.50 -3.00 18.25 -2.00
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As temperatures continued their climb and gas held steady, day-ahead and
near-term contract electricity prices declined again across the Eastern
Interconnect on Thursday. "Peak power at most hubs was solidly in the
teens, which wasn't surprising with fundamentals so bearish," commented one
unfazed southeastern trader. NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures were up
for much of the day, but fell late and ended down. The front-month contract
settled 4.3 cents lower to close at 2.185$/mmBtu, while March shed 3.7 cents
to end at 2.195$/mmBtu.

Amid mild spring-like temperatures and much lower real-time prices, heavy
load energy costs slipped further on Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic. Western
PJM goods for Friday delivery changed hands between 22.75 and 23.05$/MWh,
shedding 0.55$/MWh on the high end, but firming up a quarter on the low. In
unit news, traders said Conemaugh #2 (850 MW) probably returned to service
on Thursday, while a Keystone unit (850 MW) was off-line and expected to
remain that way through the weekend. Temperatures were expected to edge
slightly lower on Friday, with highs in the 49 to 52 degree range. A
further 5 degree decline was expected on Saturday, and temperatures were
expected to remain there through the first day of the new week. The most
current six-to-ten called for below-normal temperatures from January 16 to
20.

Peak power prices slumped for the third day in a row in the Midwest on
Thursday as weak weather-related demand and healthy generation kept hopes of
an upside in the daily market unrealized. Into Cinergy day-ahead deals were
done between 15.75 and 19.75$/MWh, with most trades below the 19$/MWh mark.
Balance of January was heard trading around 20.5$/MWh, and the February
contract saw action from 21.05 to 21.25. While forecasts called for about 5
degrees of cooling on Friday, the outlook through Monday predicted
temperatures to remain well above normal for this time of year, with lows in
the upper-20s to low-30s and highs in the upper-30s to mid-40s. The latest
six-to-ten predicted below-normal temperatures from January 16 to 20.

As the mercury rose and spot gas made incremental gains, heavy load
electricity prices in the Southeast continued to fall on Thursday. Into
Entergy goods were bought and sold between 15 and 19$/MWh, losing a painful
4$/MWh off both ends. Into TVA prices also took a hit on Thursday, with
daily trades heard between 16.5 and 18.25$/MWh. No new outages were
reported for the SERC region. Temperatures were expected to reach highs in
the upper-50s and low-60s on Friday, with overnight lows mostly in the
upper-40s. Highs were expected to cool off into the mid-50s for the weekend
and first day of the new week. The latest six-to-ten called for
below-normal temperatures from January 16 to 20.
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California ISO Congestion Index in $/MWh

Path Peak Off-peak
for 11-Jan-02 NW1 to NP15 0.00 0.00
NW3 to SP15 0.00 0.00
AZ3 to SP15 0.00 0.00
LC1 to SP15 0.00 0.00
SP15 to NP15 0.00 0.00

OTC Forward Peak Electricity Contracts in $/MWh

Mid-C PV SP-15
Bid Ask Bid Ask Bid Ask
BOM 19.50 20.50 22.00 23.00 23.00 24.00
February 18.50 20.00 21.75 22.75 22.75 23.75
March 17.00 18.50 21.50 22.50 23.00 24.00
April 17.00 18.50 23.00 24.00 23.00 24.00
Q2 '02 16.00 17.50 25.00 26.00 25.50 26.50
Q3 '02 29.50 31.00 39.00 40.00 37.75 38.75
Q4 '02 25.00 26.50 25.75 26.75 27.50 28.50
Q1 '03 24.50 26.00 25.50 26.50 27.50 28.50
Cal '03 25.50 27.00 30.00 31.00 31.50 32.50

Represents the most recent bid/ask spread obtainable
by the Energy Market Report.

Alberta Power Pool Index (C$/MWh)

Peak(14) Peak(16) Off-Peak Flat Change
for 09-Jan-02 39.00 38.33 16.62 31.77 0.71

BPA's Offer for 01/13/02 and 01/14/02.

Hours Amount NW delivered COB/NOB delivered
7-22 100MW Market Price* Market Price*
1-6, 23-24 100MW Market Price* Market Price*

*Market price will be determined at time of request.

NYMEX Henry Hub Gas Futures in $/mmBtu

Close Change
Feb 2.185 -0.043
Mar 2.195 -0.037

Natural Gas Spot Prices in $/mmBtu

Low High
Sumas 1.97 2.02
So. Cal Border 2.14 2.19
San Juan 2.01 2.06
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Economic Insight, Inc. - 3004 SW First, Portland, Oregon 97201,
Telephone (503) 222-2425, Internet e-mail emr@econ.com -
Copyright, Economic Insight, Inc. 2002.