FW: Energy Market Report 1/11/02 resend

A few of our subscribers did not receive the EMR on Friday, so we are
resending in case there was an unforeseen server error. We apologize for
any inconvenience.

-EMR staff

Energy Market Report
Friday, January 11, 2002

*See attached pdf file.
__________________________________________________________
Western Pre-Scheduled Firm Electricity Prices($/MWh)
January 11, 2002 for January 13, 2002

Peak(Heavy)
Low Change** High Change**
NW/N. Rockies* 16.00 NA 17.25 NA
Mid-Columbia* 16.00 NA 17.25 NA
COB* 15.00 NA 17.75 NA
N. California* 15.00 NA 18.00 NA
Midway/Sylmar* NA NA NA NA
S. California* 14.50 NA 19.50 NA
Mead* 16.50 NA 18.00 NA
Palo Verde* 15.00 NA 18.25 NA
Inland SW* 15.00 NA 18.25 NA
4-Corners* 15.00 NA 16.50 NA
Central Rockies* 12.75 NA 14.50 NA
__________________________________________________________
Off-Peak(Light)
Low Change** High Change**
NW/N. Rockies* 16.00 NA 17.25 NA
Mid-Columbia* 16.00 NA 17.25 NA
COB* 15.00 NA 17.75 NA
N. California* 15.00 NA 18.00 NA
Midway/Sylmar* NA NA NA NA
S. California* 14.50 NA 19.50 NA
Mead* 16.50 NA 18.00 NA
Palo Verde* 15.00 NA 18.25 NA
Inland SW* 15.00 NA 18.25 NA
4-Corners* 15.00 NA 16.50 NA
Central Rockies* 12.75 NA 14.50 NA

*Denotes trading of flat, 24-hour products.
**"NA" changes are not applicable because prices for on and off peak goods
are not comparable to flat products.
__________________________________________________________
Western Pre-Scheduled Firm Electricity Prices($/MWh)
January 11, 2002 for January 14, 2002

Peak(Heavy)
Low Change** High Change**
NW/N. Rockies 18.50 NA 19.25 NA
Mid-Columbia 18.50 NA 19.25 NA
COB 19.50 NA 21.50 NA
N. California 21.00 NA 22.50 NA
Midway/Sylmar NA NA NA NA
S. California 21.50 NA 23.00 NA
Mead 21.00 NA 21.75 NA
Palo Verde 20.25 NA 22.25 NA
Inland SW 20.25 NA 22.25 NA
4-Corners 20.50 NA 21.00 NA
Central Rockies 18.75 NA 21.00 NA
__________________________________________________________
Off-Peak(Light)
Low Change** High Change**
NW/N. Rockies 16.00 NA 17.25 NA
Mid-Columbia 16.00 NA 17.25 NA
COB 15.00 NA 17.75 NA
N. California 15.00 NA 18.00 NA
Midway/Sylmar NA NA NA NA
S. California 14.50 NA 19.50 NA
Mead 16.50 NA 18.00 NA
Palo Verde 15.00 NA 18.25 NA
Inland SW 15.00 NA 18.25 NA
4-Corners 15.00 NA 16.50 NA
Central Rockies 12.75 NA 14.50 NA

**"NA" changes are not applicable because prices for on and off peak goods
are not comparable to flat products.
__________________________________________________________
Misery Loves Company

Heavy load energy costs in the Western U.S. rose for Monday delivery on
expectations of more weather-related demand at the start of the new week, as
well as on the usual premium that occurs when scheduling three days out.
Several players expected more strength later in the week when temperatures
were forecast to dip even further. Some parties also claimed that a rise in
the number of unit outages could play a role in strengthening the daily
electricity market. "It was a pretty boring day in the spot electricity
market, there was no volatility and no liquidity. But next week could prove
to be a bit more exciting if the cold weather materializes," said one
marketer on Friday. Following last Monday's auction for a 51 percent
ownership stake in the company's trading arm, Enron Corp. chose to have
Swiss Bank UBS Warburg take control of its main energy trading business.
Enron declined to say how much UBS is paying, but company lawyers said they
will release details of the winning bid to a New York bankruptcy judge on
Monday. The move was designed to restore market confidence in the one-time
gas and electricity marketing giant. Enron shares were suspended since the
NYSE opened on Friday, pending news on the deal. Andersen, the accounting
firm for Enron, remains in hot water following news that the firm violated
one of the accounting profession's basic auditing standards by destroying
several Enron documents. There are still many questions surrounding the
destroyed documents, including who shredded them, when, and exactly why.
The issue has without doubt tarnished the reputation of the accounting firm,
all for the sake of Enron. Misery loves company.

Heavy load energy costs in the Northwest rose by as much as 2$/MWh for power
to be delivered on Monday, largely the result of forecasted cooling over the
weekend, which was likely to boost demand early in the new week. "We're
going to drop back down to more seasonable temperatures over the weekend,
and that means we'll have more heating to contend with," said one Northwest
utility trader. Light load goods rose by an average of 2.5$/MWh on the
anticipated cooling, and partly due to the inclusion of the all-day Sunday
piece. Flow forecasts for Chief Joseph remained healthy despite a reduction
in runoff, coming in at 60 kcfs Saturday, 50 kcfs Sunday, 95 kcfs Monday,
and 90 kcfs Tuesday through Friday. In unit news, Colstrip #4 (700 MW) was
back on the grid Friday, but Colstrip #3 (700 MW) was brought down due to
"generator problems." While no official ETR was available, sources were
hearing a January 18 return, "at the earliest." Reports indicated that
Wyoming-based Dave Johnston #3 (230 MW) has been down since January 8, and
the return date, which currently sits at January 15, has been pushed back
several times. Finally, Bridger #3 (520 MW) was scheduled to shut on
Saturday, January 12 for tube leak repairs. While no official ETR was
available, conventional wisdom suggests a 48 to 72-hour turnaround. Weather
forecasts for Seattle and Portland were calling for temperatures to dip to
normal levels over the weekend, while the latest six-to-ten from the NWS was
predicting a near-blanketing of below-normal temperatures across the entire
region from January 17 to 21.

Despite little change in temperature forecasts for Monday and weaker gas
prices at the Socal border, electricity prices for the Sunday/Monday package
settled higher in the Golden State on Friday. "Sunday's inclusion usually
brings light load prices up, but light load ran up more than I expected at
the end, maybe on the number of units off for the weekend and the colder
weather anticipated in the new week," said one California trader. On-peak
power at SP15 traded between 21.5 and 23$/MWh, while off-peak deals were
done from 14.5 all the way up to 19.5$/MWh, gaining more than 4$/MWh on the
high end. In unit news, Etiwanda #4 (320 MW) returned to the grid on
Friday, as did larger gas unit Pittsburg #7 (682 MW), down since January 3
for unplanned maintenance. Off-and-on Moss Landing #6 (739 MW) came down
for unplanned maintenance, while Encina #5 (332 MW) exited for planned
repairs. Forecasts at mid-state load centers called for temperatures in the
42 to 57 degree range on Monday, about five degrees above normal for this
time of year. Los Angeles was anticipating highs around 67 degrees and
overnight lows at 51 degrees on Monday, right at seasonal levels. The most
current six-to-ten called for below-normal temperatures from January 17 to
21.

Day-ahead prices in the Southwest made their typical rise for Sunday/Monday
power, but some parties were surprised by the amount of strength seen.
"Prices were up quite a bit, which surprised me since spot gas was off
slightly today and while temperatures are expected to drop, they should
still remain above normal levels," said one Phoenix-based player. Peak
power at Palo Verde traded from 20.25 to 22.25$/MWh, with the bulk of deals
done at the 21$/MWh mark. Light load goods ranged from 15 to 18.25$/MWh,
with unconfirmed trades heard as low as 13$/MWh. In unit news,
Arizona-based Coronado #1 (365 MW) remained off line Friday, but was
expected to ramp up to two thirds load on Saturday, where it will remain for
more repairs until ramping up to full power on January 16. While most
regional temperatures were expected to remain above or just at normal levels
into the new week, the latest six-to-ten was predicting a round of
below-normal temperatures for the entire desert region from January 17 to
21.

Patrick O'Neill and Jessie Norris
_________________________________________________________

Western Generating Unit Outages

Current Begins Ends Reason
CAISO units <250/6139 total NA NA
planned/unplanned*
Alamitos #3/320/gas 04-Dec-01 ? planned
Alamitos #4/320/gas 04-Jan-02 ? planned
Bridger #3/520/coal 12-Jan-02 14-Jan-02 tube leak*
Colstrip #3/700/coal 11-Jan-02 ? repairs*
Coronado #1/365/coal 22-Dec-01 11-Jan-02 main
transformer
Encina #5/332/gas 11-Jan-02 ? planned*
Etiwanda #3/320/gas 22-Dec-01 ? planned
Four Corners #5 09-Jan-02 14-Mar-02 maintenance
Grand Coulee #19/600/hydro 10-Dec-01 March repairs
Haynes #6/341/gas 07-Jan-02 ? planned
Helms PGP #2/407/hydro 01-Oct-01 ? planned
Hyatt/Thermalito/933/hydro 02-Oct-01 ? @607 MW,
unplanned
Morro Bay #3/337/gas 04-Jan-02 ? planned
Moss Landing #6/739/gas 11-Jan-02 ? unplanned*
Moss Landing #7/739/gas 29-Dec-01 ? planned
Ormond Beach #1/725/gas 28-Dec-01 ? planned
Ormond Beach #2/750/gas 05-Oct-01 ? @350 MW,
unplanned
Pittsburg #6/317/gas 22-Nov-01 ? planned
Redondo #8/480/gas 09-Dec-01 ? planned
San Juan #4/534/coal 10-Jan-02 13-Jan-02 tube leak*

For unit owners refer to pdf version.
*Indicates a change from previous EMR.
______________________________________________________________________

Eastern Markets Pre-Scheduled Firm Power Prices ($/MWh)

January 11, 2002 for January 14, 2002

Peak (Heavy) in $/MWh
Low Change High Change
Into Cinergy 16.50 0.75 18.15 -1.60
Western PJM 24.55 1.80 25.10 2.05
Into Entergy 17.40 2.40 19.00 0.00
Into TVA 18.00 1.50 19.00 0.75
___________________________________________________________
With cooler weather forecast for Monday and a stronger gas market for much
of the day, spot electricity prices traded mostly higher and in tighter
ranges on Friday across the Eastern Interconnect. However, power prices for
February delivery were mostly down, reflecting a still predominantly bearish
and cautious market. NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures had posted gains
on Friday, mainly on weekend risk. The front-month contract edged up 1.9
cents to close at 2.204$/mmBtu, while March picked up an incremental 0.8
cent to end at 2.203$/mmBtu.

An upturn in the gas market, cooler temperatures for the new week, and
stronger real-time prices for much of the day all helped boost peak power
prices for Monday delivery in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Western PJM goods
were bought and sold between 24.55 and 25.1$/MWh, gaining about 2$/MWh at
both ends. February deals were heard from 25.4 to 25.5$/MWh. LMPs spent an
hour or more above 37$/MWh on three occasions during the day on Friday,
bringing the average up to 25.11$/MWh through 15:00 EST, a substantial gain
over Thursday's average. Traders thought an unexpected outage at one of the
Salem units (1,106 MW) was the most likely culprit sending the dailies and
real-time prices higher. Sources also thought the unit would remain down
into the early part of the new week. Forecasts for Monday called for
temperatures to remain above normal but below Friday's readings. Highs were
expected in the 47 to 50 degree range, but lows were expected to dip into
the low-30s, prompting expectations of more overnight heating load in the
new week. The most current six-to-ten predicted below-normal conditions
from January 17 to 21.

Heavy load electricity prices traded mostly steady and in a narrower range
to a day ago in the Midwest on Friday. Into Cinergy pieces changed hands
between 16.5 and 18.15$/MWh. Although the high end was significantly lower,
the bulk of transactions were seen near Thursday's levels. The February
contract continued to bleed on Friday, with trades heard between 20.9 and
21.3$/MWh. "February is hopefully near the low end of where it can trade,
but the physical market is weak, so it all depends on how weather forecasts
and gas do next week," commented one forwards trader. In unit news,
Michigan-based Cook #2 (1,090 MW) was operating at 90% on Friday, joining
fellow nuke LaSalle (1,144 MW) in coasting down towards mid-month refueling
outages. Temperatures were expected to remain above normal on Monday, with
highs reaching the low-40s and lows mostly in the upper-20s. The latest
six-to-ten called for below-normal temperatures from January 17 to 21.

Bouyed up by gas gains, peak power prices were steady to slightly higher on
Friday in the Southeast. No new outages were reported on Friday.
Temperatures were expected to cool somewhat in the new week, but ample
generation kept prices in check. Highs for Monday and Tuesday were expected
in the mid-50s. The most current six-to-ten called for below-normal
temperatures from January 17 to 21.
___________________________________________________________

California ISO Congestion Index in $/MWh

Path Peak Off-peak
for 12-Jan-02 NW1 to NP15 0.00 0.00
NW3 to SP15 0.00 0.00
AZ3 to SP15 0.00 0.00
LC1 to SP15 0.00 0.00
SP15 to NP15 0.00 0.00

OTC Forward Peak Electricity Contracts in $/MWh

Mid-C PV SP-15
Bid Ask Bid Ask Bid Ask
BOM 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 21.50 22.50
February 18.50 20.00 21.25 22.25 23.00 24.00
March 17.00 18.50 21.50 22.50 22.75 23.75
April 17.00 18.50 23.00 24.00 23.00 24.00
Q2 '02 16.50 18.00 25.25 26.25 25.00 26.00
Q3 '02 30.00 31.50 39.00 40.00 38.00 39.00
Q4 '02 25.75 27.25 26.00 27.00 27.50 28.50
Q1 '03 25.00 26.50 26.00 27.00 28.00 29.00
Cal '03 26.00 27.50 30.00 31.00 32.00 33.00

Represents the most recent bid/ask spread obtainable
by the Energy Market Report.

Alberta Power Pool Index (C$/MWh)

Peak(14) Peak(16) Off-Peak Flat Change
for 10-Jan-02 38.14 37.45 14.47 30.53 -1.24

BPA's Offer for 01/15/02.

Hours Amount NW delivered COB/NOB delivered
7-22 100MW Market Price* Market Price*
1-6, 23-24 100MW Market Price* Market Price*

*Market price will be determined at time of request.

NYMEX Henry Hub Gas Futures in $/mmBtu

Close Change
Feb 2.204 0.019
Mar 2.203 0.008

Natural Gas Spot Prices in $/mmBtu

Low High
Sumas 1.95 2.00
So. Cal Border 2.10 2.16
San Juan 1.97 2.02
__________________________________________________________

Economic Insight, Inc. - 3004 SW First, Portland, Oregon 97201,
Telephone (503) 222-2425, Internet e-mail emr@econ.com -
Copyright, Economic Insight, Inc. 2002.