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Enron Mail |
Here is my initial perspective. I am still waiting for call backs on some information.
Bull Case Best positioned among emerging backbone carriers Core network build done Cash EBITDA positive (adjusted for IRU sales) Broad network coverage Reasonable liquidity: $2.6B forecast YE01 Potential upside $21 Bear Case: Extreme capacity supply/demand imbalance Pricing pressure, no apparent elasticity Low visibility in IRU and dark fiber sales business (28% revenue) $9B debt & pref Hard to make a constructive case on demand in intermediate term Potential issue with cash movement between Parent and Subs, covenant test Seems fairly valued on peer group risk-adjusted basis, absolute fair value $6 Conclusion: Debt yielding 23%, why would you buy equity? Probability of recap: 50% Chance of survival without restructuring: 25% If a proposed deal involved some cash exchange for equity upside I would be hard pressed to recommend that transaction. I don't understand all the dynamics of a deal so if you want me to do any more in-depth work let me know. I will pass on the additional information as I get it. Regards, Patrick
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