Enron Mail

Subject:Introducing The Power Curve II
Date:Mon, 27 Nov 2000 01:15:00 -0800 (PST)

Introducing the Power Curve II
The November Forward Price Curve (updated from our September analysis)
Introducing the Spark Spread
Comparing the Energy Merchants

Summary of key points:

* Power prices have growth tighter since our September analysis; 2001
forward prices are higher in every region by an average of 5%.
* The national average forward price is 23% higher in 2001 than in
* We introduce the spark spread in this report. We expect a slightly
wider power/gas spread in 2001, although natural gas prices continue to
climb to record levels. This is bullish for generators.
* Generators are off 29% from summertime peaks; we suggest
accumulating prior to next summer. We highlight Calpine, NRG Energy, and
Southern Energy.
* We also recommend energy merchants, whose strong trading skills
offer protection in any commodity pricing environment. We recommend Enron,
Dynegy, and Duke Energy. (See our Merchant Matrix on page 7.)

<<The Power Curve II.pdf<<
If you have any trouble opening the document, please call Judy Collazo at

Raymond C. Niles
Power/Natural Gas Research
Salomon Smith Barney
(212) 816-2807


- The Power Curve II.pdf