Enron Mail

Subject:The Momentum of President Bush
Date:Wed, 20 Jun 2001 18:48:00 -0700 (PDT)

Dear Friends:

On Tuesday night, Republican Randy Forbes was elected to represent one of the
most competitive, Democratic-leaning districts in America: Virginia's 4th
Congressional District. President Clinton won the 4th district in 1992 and
1996, and Republican Senate candidates lost the district in 1998 and 2000
(even while they won statewide).

Despite the tough odds, Randy Forbes won a hard fought election on the
strength of a positive message of furthering the programs and policies of
President Bush. While his Democrat opponent used scare tactics and negative
campaigning, Forbes won the district by more than 5,000 votes.

The media labeled this election as a referendum on President Bush. Democrats
were desperate to win, but Republicans won another victory in a swing

To give you a bit of historical perspective, there have been 78 special
elections over the past 25 years. Only 19 of those special elections
resulted in a change of party representation for the seat, and only three of
those 19 swung toward the party of the President. Historical odds were not
in his favor, but Representative-elect Forbes defied the odds.

So what does this history-defying Republican victory mean to us on a national
level? The Forbes victory is proof positive of the continuing nationwide
momentum across the political spectrum for President Bush's agenda for

And you have been a large part of sustaining the Bush momentum. You helped
President Bush and Congress achieve together what critics said couldn't be
done - a bipartisan $1.35 trillion tax relief package. The first round of
tax relief checks was mailed yesterday, and I sincerely appreciate your
helping American taxpayers get the relief we deserve.

If President Bush is to succeed in improving our schools, rebuilding our
military, saving Social Security and Medicare and ushering in the
responsibility era, he will need your continued help and involvement.

President Bush is counting on all of us to become his Team Leaders. Learn
more about this unique opportunity to spread the President's message and help
retain and increase our majorities in 2002 by visiting

Again, thank you for your continued efforts. Without you, odds are we
wouldn't have been able to win in Virginia.

Very truly yours,

Jim Gilmore
Chairman, Republican National Committee


Background on VA-04 Special Election
June 20, 2001

Upset in Virginia Special Election

A Victory for White House & National GOP

Republican Team Pulls Together, Victory a Model for
'01 and '02 Elections

-- Last night, Randy Forbes was elected to represent Virginia's 4th district,
receiving 52.1% (70,926 votes) to Democrat Louise Lucas' 47.9% (65,189
votes). This election is a swing district-President Clinton won the district
by 1% in 1992 and 7% in 1996, while President Bush won the district by less
than 1,000 votes.

-- In the past 25 years, there have been 78 special elections. Only 19
resulted in a change of party representation for the seat, and of the 19,
only 3 swung toward the party of the President. Now 4.

-- President Bill Clinton pre-recorded thousands of turnout calls for this
special election.

-- The voters embraced the President's policies.

-- Most importantly the President's policies were embraced in a moderate
swing district drawn by Democrats, further evidence that President Bush is
addressing the issues that affect and unite everyone.

-- Randy Forbes ran on the programs, policies and momentum of President Bush.
Randy ran on moving the President's policies forward and now the results are
in and the outcome is clear.

-- Media pundits recognized that this would be a referendum on the President.

Bob Novak, of The Chicago Sun-Times: "A mailing came out from the Democratic
candidates...saying...there's no doubt who the Bush Republican will help, who
it will hurt -- six million minority families and 12 million children will be
left behind." (CNN's "Inside Politics," 06/07/01)

Mark Shields: "Larry, is this Virginia race really an early referendum on
President George W. Bush?" U.Va. Professor Larry Sabato: "To a certain agree
I think it is." (CNN?s "Capital Gang," 06/16/01)

"Numerous national analysts called the [special election] a test of the two
parties' strengths and a possible bellwether for the fight for control of the
House of Representatives in 2002. Some of the national cachet surrounding
the contest comes from its status as the first congressional election since
Vermont Sen. James M. Jeffords' defection from the GOP switched control of
the Senate?" (Tyler Whitley, "Lucas, Forbes Push Turnout," The Richmond
Times-Dispatch, 06/19/01)

"...a contest that's being widely viewed as an early indicator of voter
attitudes toward Bush and his policies. The result, said Stuart Rothenberg,
an independent analyst of congressional campaigns, is that the race looms as
'a sort of referendum on George W. Bush, on the energy issue, on Social
Security and on the direction of the country.' Indeed, Rothenberg and others
will review the outcome as a possible harbinger for the 2002 midterm
elections." (Robert L. Jackson, "Va. House Race May Show GOP What It Faces
In '02," Los Angeles Times, 06/17/01)

"National politicians view the toss-up race in Virginia's 4th District not
only as a possible referendum on the Bush administration but also as a
bellwether race that will determine which party has the momentum heading into
the 2002 elections." (Allison Stevens, "Polls See Virginia Race As Preview
Of Battle For The House In 2002," The Hill, 06/13/01)

Bob Edwards: "The election is being portrayed as a referendum on the Bush
administration." (NPR's "Morning Edition," 06/13/01)

Fred Barnes: "This election in the fourth district of Virginia is the Vieques
of elections. It's the testing ground for this Social Security issue. And
if the Democrat, who is an African- American woman named Louise Lucas, if she
wins, Democrats are going to rightly conclude, this Social Security issue is
dynamite, and we can attack Bush's partial privatization bill." (Fox's "Fox
News Sunday," 06/17/01)

"Political analysts said the race would be viewed as an early referendum on
the Bush administration and as a bellwether for next year's midterm
elections." (Larry O'Dell, "State Senators Compete For Open Seat In
Congress," The Associated Press, 06/19/01)

"[T]oday's by-election in Virginia's Fourth District has become a referendum
on Mr. Bush's first five months. If the Democrats win, they will argue that
Mr. Bush has once again been rejected and that they have the momentum for
next year's crucial mid-term elections." (Damian Whitworth, "Battle Flares
As Virginia Poll Puts Bush To Test," The London Times, 06/19/01)


-- GOP Unity, May 10: White House Political Director Ken Mehlman spoke at the
Chesterfield GOP Unity dinner on May 10. Chesterfield County was Forbes'
primary opponents strongest county.

-- Fundraising, June 4: Vice President Cheney spoke at a fundraiser in
Chesapeake where nearly $100,000 was contributed to the Forbes campaign.

-- Education, June 12: Forbes participated in an inner-city school event in
Portsmouth where Secretary Paige spoke about the President's Plan to reform

-- Sportsmen, June 14: Former NASCAR superstar and current FOX racing analyst
Darrell Waltrip visited a Forbes for Congress picnic, garnering media
coverage both on the front page and the sports pages of local newspapers.

Grassroots Activity:

-- Mail: President Bush signed his name to an absentee ballot mail piece that
garnered more than 2,000 responses. Bob Dole signed a letter that went to
55,000 veterans and their families.

-- Phones: Over 66,000 phone calls were made with a message from President
Bush. 45,000 phone calls were made to seniors with a message from Barbara

-- State Parties: 42 GOP State Parties contributed money to the Forbes
campaign, with the majority of parties sending $5,000, the maximum allowed,
raising a total of $230,000.

-- Members of Congress: Approximately 130 Members of Congress contributed
money to the Forbes Campaign, including dozens of leadership PACs.

Other Activities:

-- Veterans, May 19: Secretary Principi attended a Veterans event on May 19
to reach out to the 150,000 servicemen, former servicemen, and military
families in the district.

-- Outreach, June 8: Congressman J.C. Watts attended a Forbes event in a
heavily African-American part of the district with pastors and community


Paid for by the Republican National Committee.

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